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A user equilibrium model for combined activity-travel choice under prospect theoretical mechanisms of decision-making under uncertainty

机译：不确定性决策的预期理论机制下活动与出行组合选择的用户均衡模型

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摘要

Rather than considering single trips as the unit of analysis, the activity-based modeling paradigm of travel demand analysis has led to reconceptualizations and innovations in traffic flow models by focusing on complete daily activity-travel patterns. The vast majority of these travel demand and traffic flow models have either implicitly or explicitly assumed that travelers choose between alternatives by maximizing their utility under a deterministic representation of the choice alternatives. While this behavioral assumption leads to tractable, easy-to-apply models, the validity of the assumption largely went untested. This paper investigates the user equilibrium of activity-travel patterns under uncertainty from the perspective of prospect theory. A formulation of the static activity-based user equilibrium model is proposed. In particular, we adopt the concept of a multi-state supernetwork to represent the choice space of activity-travel patterns. A numerical example using hypothetical scenarios is presented to illustrate the proposed model and solution algorithm.
机译：不是将单程旅行作为分析单位，而是通过基于完整的日常活动-旅行模式，基于活动的旅行需求分析建模范式导致了交通流模型的重新概念化和创新。这些旅行需求和交通流模型中的绝大多数都隐含或显式地假定旅行者通过在选择替代方案的确定性表示下最大化其效用来在替代方案之间进行选择。尽管此行为假设导致易于处理且易于应用的模型，但该假设的有效性在很大程度上未经测试。本文从前瞻理论的角度研究了不确定性下活动-旅行模式的用户均衡。提出了基于静态活动的用户均衡模型的表述。特别地，我们采用多状态超级网络的概念来表示活动旅行模式的选择空间。给出了使用假设情景的数值示例，以说明所提出的模型和求解算法。

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