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Intertemporal demand for international tourist air travel

机译：国际游客空中旅行的跨时需求

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摘要

This study investigated dynamic international tourism travel demand by constructing an intertemporal travel choice model. In the model, the utility functions comprise two factors: individuals' ability to travel and external environmental factors in different years. Individuals are assumed to pursue a maximised aggregated utility, with various discounts on past and future years subject to time and budget constraints. A questionnaire was designed to calibrate and explore individuals' preferences for international tourism travel from Taiwan. The study collected historic data over the past decade to estimate parameter values for the external environmental factor. The variables, such as travel budget, holiday and vacation days, travel expense and number of travel days are shown to significantly affect individual travel demand. The results support the argument that negative external events, such as an emerging influenza pandemic or economic crisis, have an adverse impact on international travel demand. Moreover, the utility of past travel experience declines at a slower rate than that of expected future travel. The findings imply that past travel experience has an unexpectedly strong impact on future travel decisions. The results also show that travellers tend not to travel until their saving budget has accumulated enough to cover travel expenses. Travellers with high incomes in Taiwan could undertake outbound international travel almost every year.
机译：本研究通过构建跨期旅行选择模型，研究了动态的国际旅游旅行需求。在模型中，效用函数包括两个因素：个人的旅行能力和不同年份的外部环境因素。假定个人追求最大的综合效用，在过去和未来几年会受到时间和预算限制的各种折扣。设计了一个调查表，以校准和探讨个人对台湾国际旅游旅行的偏好。该研究收集了过去十年的历史数据，以估计外部环境因素的参数值。变量，例如旅行预算，假日和休假天数，旅行费用和旅行天数显示出对个人旅行需求的显着影响。结果支持这样的论点，即负面的外部事件，例如正在出现的流感大流行或经济危机，对国际旅行需求产生不利影响。此外，过去旅行经历的效用下降的速度比预期未来旅行的效用要慢。调查结果表明，过去的旅行经历会对未来的旅行决策产生出乎意料的强烈影响。结果还表明，旅行者往往不会旅行，直到他们的储蓄预算积累到足以支付旅行费用为止。台湾的高收入旅行者几乎每年都可以进行出境国际旅行。

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  • 来源
    《Transportmetrica》 |2013年第6期|385-407|共23页
  • 作者

    Chaug-Ing Hsu; Hui-Chieh Li; Li-Hung Yang;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Transportation Technology and Management, National Chiao Tung University, 1001 Ta Hsueh Road, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan, ROC;

    Marketing and Logistics Management, Ta Hwa Institute of Technology, 1 Da Hwa Road, Qionglin Shiang, Hsinchu County 307, Taiwan, ROC;

    Department of Transportation Technology and Management, National Chiao Tung University, 1001 Ta Hsueh Road, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan, ROC;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    intertemporal model; time preference; tourism demand;

    机译：跨期模型时间偏好;旅游需求;

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