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Reliability analysis of corrosion affected underground steel pipes considering multiple failure modes and their stochastic correlations

机译:考虑多种失效模式及其随机相关性的受腐蚀地下钢管的可靠性分析

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This paper presents a methodology for determining the probability of system failure of corrosion affected steel pipelines with multiple failure modes. The failure modes include fracture, strength failure, deflection and buckling and they are all modelled as stochastic processes with correlations among them. The first passage probability theory is employed to quantify the probability of pipe failure. A case study is presented to illustrate the proposed methodology; followed by a sensitivity analysis to investigate the effects of key random variables on the probability of pipe failure. It is found that correlation of the load effect process at different points in time and the correlation among different failure modes have a considerable effect on the probability of failure for each failure mode and probability of system failure respectively. It is also found that the corrosion model and pipe thickness are most influential with positive and negative indices respectively on the probability of pipe failure for all failure modes. The methodology presented in this paper can help pipe engineers and asset managers develop a risk-informed maintenance strategy for corrosion-affected steel pipelines.
机译:本文提出了一种确定具有多种失效模式的受腐蚀影响的钢管系统失效的可能性的方法。破坏模式包括断裂,强度破坏,挠曲和屈曲,它们都被建模为具有相关性的随机过程。首次通过概率理论用于量化管道故障的概率。进行案例研究以说明所建议的方法;然后进行敏感性分析,以研究关键随机变量对管道故障概率的影响。发现在不同时间点的负荷效应过程的相关性以及不同故障模式之间的相关性分别对每种故障模式的故障概率和系统故障概率具有相当大的影响。还发现,对于所有失效模式,腐蚀模型和管道厚度分别对管道失效的概率具有正负指数的影响最大。本文介绍的方法可以帮助管道工程师和资产经理制定受腐蚀影响的钢管的风险知情维护策略。

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