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A probability model for investigating the trend of structural deterioration of wastewater pipelines

机译：调查废水管道结构恶化趋势的概率模型

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Canada's infrastructure is aging and deteriorating. New legislation requires the municipalities to estimate operating and capital expenditures for running the systems into the future and to develop financial sus-tainability plans. Wastewater pipelines deterioration is currently not well understood and realistic deterioration models need to be developed.rnThis paper demonstrates how the condition assessment data from trenchless visual inspections of wastewater pipelines can be used to understand the performance of wastewater pipelines. A new ordinal regression model for the deterioration of wastewater pipelines based on cumulative logits is elaborated. The model is presented using the Generalized Linear model formulation and takes into account the interaction effect between the explanatory variables. The new model is demonstrated and validated using the City of Niagara Falls high quality wastewater collection network condition assessment data for reinforced concrete (RC) and vitrified clay (VC) pipes.rnThis new model is found to represent the City of Niagara Falls RC and VC pipes' deterioration behavior for pipes in service for up to 110 years. RC pipes deterioration is found to be age dependent while VC pipes deterioration is not age dependent. This finding is contrary to other deterioration model studies that indicate that VC deterioration is age dependent. The service life for RC pipes is estimated to be approximately 75 years while VC pipes are found to have an indefinite service life if installed without structural damage.rnThe cumulative logit model can be used to determine wastewater pipelines' service life, predict future condition states, and estimate networks' maintenance and rehabilitation expenditures. The latter is critical if realistic wastewater networks' future maintenance and operation budgets are to be developed for the life of assets and to meet new regulatory reporting requirements. Further research is required to validate this new methodology for other networks and the deterioration modeling of pipe materials other than RC and VC.
机译：加拿大的基础设施正在老化和恶化。新法规要求市政当局估算运营和未来系统运行所需的资本支出，并制定财务可持续性计划。目前对污水管道的恶化尚不十分了解，需要建立现实的恶化模型。本文说明了如何利用废水管道的无孔目视检查得到的状态评估数据可用于了解污水管道的性能。阐述了一种基于累积对数的污水管道退化的新序数回归模型。该模型使用广义线性模型公式表示，并考虑了解释变量之间的相互作用。通过使用尼亚加拉瀑布城的优质废水收集网络状况评估数据对钢筋混凝土（RC）和玻璃化粘土（VC）管道进行了演示和验证，发现该新模型代表了尼亚加拉瀑布城RC和VC使用寿命长达110年的管道的劣化行为。发现RC管道的老化与年龄有关，而VC管道的老化与年龄无关。这一发现与其他表明VC恶化与年龄有关的恶化模型研究相反。 RC管道的使用寿命估计约为75年，而VC管道如果安装时没有结构损坏，则使用寿命不确定。rnlogit累积模型可用于确定废水管道的使用寿命，预测未来状况，并估算网络的维护和修复支出。如果要针对资产寿命和满足新的监管报告要求制定现实的废水网络未来维护和运营预算，则后者至关重要。需要进一步的研究来验证该新方法是否可用于其他网络以及RC和VC以外的管道材料的退化模型。

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