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首页> 外文期刊>Urban Studies >Does demand lead supply? Gentrifiers and developers in the sequence of gentrification, New York City 2009-2016
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Does demand lead supply? Gentrifiers and developers in the sequence of gentrification, New York City 2009-2016

机译：需求铅供应吗？ 绅士和开发人员在纽约市2009-2016的绅士序列中

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Consumption-side theorists of gentrification examine the flow of middle-class White people into previously working-class neighbourhoods and argue that their demand for housing stimulates gentrification. In contrast, production-side theorists emphasise the movement of capital into previously disinvested neighbourhoods and contend that profit-seeking development increases property values and sparks gentrification. Hybrid theorists argue that consumption and production occur simultaneously. This article operationalises arguments made by each approach, and asks: Do gentrifiers precede rising home values or do rising home values precede gentrifiers? To answer this question of sequence, we build a dataset of census and property tax assessment data for 2192 New York City census tracts between 2009 and 2016. Using cross-lagged regression models with tract and year fixed effects, we find neighbourhoods that experienced an increase in White, middle-class residents had related housing price spikes in each of the subsequent two years. A 1% increase in gentrifiers was associated with a subsequent 2.7% increase in property values. However, housing market growth did not predict future increases in gentrifiers. This suggests that consumption leads production during neighbourhood gentrification, and that developers are reactive, not proactive, in their investment decisions. Focusing on the sequence of gentrification’s subsidiary elements enables city officials, non-profits and social movements to better anticipate gentrification and develop more targeted policies.
机译：Gentrification的消费侧理论家将中产阶级白人流入以前的工作舱社区，并争辩说他们对住房的需求刺激绅士化。相比之下，生产侧理论家强调资本进入以前消失的社区，并争辩，寻求利润的发展增加了财产价值观和火花绅士化。混合理论家认为，消费和生产同时发生。本文运营各种方法所做的论点，并询问：绅士在升起的家庭价值观上或崛起的家庭价值之前的绅士绅士？要回答这个序列问题，我们建立了2009年至2016年之间的2192年纽约城市人口普查的人口普查和财产税评估数据的数据集。使用带有道路和年度固定效果的交叉滞后回归模型，我们发现了增加的社区在白色，中产阶级居民在随后的两年中有相关的住房价格飙升。 Gentifiers增加1％的增加与随后的财产价值增加的2.7％。然而，住房市场增长并未预测绅士犬的未来增加。这表明消费在邻里更加绅士动系中产生了生产，并且开发商在其投资决策中具有反应性，而不是主动。专注于更衣书的附属元素序列使城市官员，非营利性和社会运动能够更好地预测更好的绅士化，并制定更多的目标政策。

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