If anyone expects some sort of "peace dividend" as we begin to draw down the U.S. military presence in Iraq, any such dividend will probably not materialize during the next 20 to 30 years. True, the U.S. has now been at war for six years, following the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington. But, as the futurists say with near unanimity, the next decades will be ones of "persistent conflict" in which states, non-states and individuals increasingly use violence as a means of achieving their political and ideological objectives. The long-term implications for the U.S. defense industry - and particularly the research-intensive rotorcraft segment - are mixed to bad.
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