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A Systems Approach to Validating the Water Vision of the Aral Sea Basin

机译：验证咸海流域水景的系统方法

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摘要

The governments of the Aral Sea Basin countries, in cooperation with international organizations (UNESCO and World Bank) came up with a "water vision "for the region until 2025. The landlocked Aral Sea has been suffering from an imbalance in water evaporation, and, water inflow from its two main sources - Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, when the planners in the former Soviet Union from the 1960s diverted the river waters for irrigation. The irrigated area has increased from the 1960s by two-thirds to 7 million hectares and the population by three-fold to 50 million in the basin countries. Consequently the inflow to the Aral Sea from these two rivers decreased from 55 km~3 in 1960 to a few km~3 during the 1980s and 1990s. This has resulted in one of the worst man-made ecological disasters of the century. In this paper, we examine different scenarios to achieve the vision goals and whether it is indeed feasible. Using IWMI basin-oriented water accounting principles, we have shown that significant amount of water is being wasted in the region. Our analysis concludes that though not all the vision goals are likely to be met over the next 25 years, the inflow into the Aral Sea can be increased to over 20 km~3 through better management and use of water resources.
机译：咸海流域国家的政府与国际组织（教科文组织和世界银行）合作，提出了对该地区的“水远景”，直到2025年。内陆咸海一直遭受水蒸发失衡的困扰，而且，有两个主要水源-阿姆河（Amu Darya）和锡尔河（Syr Darya）河，当时从1960年代开始的前苏联计划人员将河水改道用于灌溉。流域国家的灌溉面积从1960年代增加了三分之二，达到700万公顷，人口增长了三倍，达到5000万。因此，从这两条河流流入咸海的流量从1960年的55 km〜3减少到1980年代和1990年代的几km〜3。这导致了本世纪最严重的人为生态灾难之一。在本文中，我们研究了实现愿景目标的不同方案，以及它是否确实可行。使用IWMI面向流域的水核算原则，我们已经表明该地区浪费了大量的水。我们的分析得出的结论是，尽管在未来25年内可能无法实现所有的视觉目标，但通过更好地管理和利用水资源，可以将咸海的流入量增加到20 km〜3以上。

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