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Mitigating water shortages in a multiple risk environment

机译：缓解多重风险环境中的水资源短缺

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This paper estimates the economic value of irrigation water shortfalls and mitigation responses of farmers in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. The water shortage levels closely correspond to supply shortfalls experienced by the U.S. during the 1990s when Mexico fell behind on treaty delivery obligations. We identify and evaluate a range of crop choices, appropriate irrigation technology use, water source substitution, and other mitigation strategies used by farmers to deal with water shortages. The effects of exogenous crop price and yield risk, as well as other structural considerations are incorporated in the estimation of the marginal value of irrigation water. Results show that South Texas farmers react to risk by diversifying their crop mix, with implications for the imputed value of water and soil resources. The inclusion of exogenous risk refines the prediction of what decision makers would have grown assuming strict Mexican treaty compliance. The resulting marginal values reflect grower adjustments for risk using crop mix, irrigation level, and irrigation technology. The aggregate damage estimates using this approach are realistically smaller than previous damage estimates that were based on fixed cropping patterns and average water values.
机译：本文估算了得克萨斯州下里奥格兰德河谷的灌溉水短缺和农民缓解风险的经济价值。缺水程度与1990年代墨西哥在履行条约交付义务方面落后时美国经历的供水短缺密切相关。我们确定并评估一系列作物选择，适当的灌溉技术使用，水源替代以及农民用来应对缺水的其他缓解策略。外来作物价格和产量风险的影响，以及其他结构性考虑因素，都被纳入灌溉水边际价值的估算中。结果表明，南德克萨斯州的农民通过使作物结构多样化来应对风险，这对水和土壤资源的估算价值产生了影响。在严格遵守墨西哥条约的前提下，将外部风险包括在内可以更好地预测决策者的成长情况。最终的边际价值反映了种植者利用作物混合，灌溉水平和灌溉技术对风险的调整。实际上，使用这种方法的总损失估算要小于以前的基于固定的种植方式和平均水价的损失估算。

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