Calculating constant-reliability water supply unit costs

Gary Wolff

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Calculating constant-reliability water supply unit costs

机译：计算恒定可靠的供水单位成本

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Water planners facing a choice between water "supply" options (including conservation) customarily use the average unit cost of each option as a decision criterion. This approach is misleading and potentially costly when comparing options with very different reliability characteristics. For example, surface water, desalinated seawater or recycled wastewater and some outdoor demand management programs have very different yield patterns. This paper presents a method for calculating constant-reliability unit costs that adapts some concepts and mathematics from financial portfolio theory. Comparison on a constant-reliability basis can significantly change the relative attractiveness of options. In particular, surface water, usually a low cost option, is more expensive after its variability has been accounted for. Further, options that are uncorrelated or inversely correlated with existing supply sources—such as outdoor water conservation—will be more attractive than they initially appear. This insight, which implies options should be evaluated and chosen as packages rather than individually, opens up a new dimension of yield and financial analysis for water planners.

机译：面对水“供水”方案（包括节水方案）之间进行选择的水规划师通常将每个方案的平均单位成本用作决策标准。当比较具有非常不同的可靠性特征的选件时，这种方法具有误导性，并且可能造成高昂的成本。例如，地表水，淡化海水或再生废水以及一些户外需求管理计划的产量模式有很大不同。本文提出了一种计算恒定可靠性单位成本的方法，该方法适用于金融投资组合理论中的一些概念和数学。在恒定可靠性的基础上进行比较可以显着改变期权的相对吸引力。特别是，通常考虑到价格低廉的地表水，在考虑了其可变性之后，价格会更高。此外，与现有供应源不相关或不相关的选项（例如室外节水）将比最初出现的更具吸引力。这种见解意味着应该对期权进行评估和选择，而不是将其作为一揽子方案，这为水利计划者开辟了收益和财务分析的新领域。

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《Water Policy》 |2008年第1期|p.95-104|共10页
作者
Gary Wolff;
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中图分类水文科学（水界物理学）;
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机译：计算恒定可靠性供水单位成本

Calculating constant-reliability water supply unit costs

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