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A role for GIS-based simulation for empowering local stakeholders in water resources negotiations in developing countries: case studies for two rural hillside watersheds in Honduras and Colombia

机译：基于GIS的模拟在增强当地利益相关者参与发展中国家水资源谈判中的作用：针对洪都拉斯和哥伦比亚两个农村山坡流域的案例研究

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Water security for those living in poverty is a concern for a broad range of policy makers. Identifying appropriate policy options, however, means coping with complexity and uncertainty inherent in natural and human systems. This paper demonstrates how geographical information systems and simulation modeling can facilitate scenario analysis of water availability and water security. The result is policy development with a strong human context that can empower stakeholders in water resources negotiations and the design of a science-based, community-supported water resources management plans. We applied these tools to two hillside watersheds in Honduras and Colombia to generate basic information about the "state of water resources", and how they may change over space and time, for the present situation and under alternatives futures. Stakeholder participation in creating and analyzing scenarios is a critical part of the overall policy development methodological framework, so that what might otherwise be only lines on a graph is put into more concrete human terms. The analyses showed that, among others, stream water availability and the location of streams strongly vary throughout the year and over space; that different parts of the watersheds do not equally contribute to stream water; that inequalities exist in household accessibility to streams; and that dams could help supply sufficient irrigation water under alternative development scenarios without endangering water supply to downstream communities. These results are helpful for better understanding landscape processes at a watershed scale, for identifying desired future conditions and negotiating tradeoffs that are required to reach them, and for supporting water policy development.
机译：贫困人口的水安全问题是众多决策者关注的问题。然而，确定适当的政策选择意味着应对自然和人为系统固有的复杂性和不确定性。本文演示了地理信息系统和模拟建模如何能够促进水资源可用性和水安全的情景分析。结果是在强大的人文环境下制定政策，可以使利益相关者有能力进行水资源谈判以及设计基于科学的，社区支持的水资源管理计划。我们将这些工具应用于洪都拉斯和哥伦比亚的两个山坡流域，以生成有关“水资源状况”的基本信息，以及有关当前状况和替代期货情况下它们如何随时间和空间变化的基本信息。利益相关者参与创建和分析方案是整个政策制定方法框架的关键部分，因此，可能只是图形上的线条被用更具体的人类术语表达。分析表明，除其他外，溪流的水量和溪流的位置在全年和整个空间内都存在很大差异；分水岭的不同部分对河流水的贡献不同；家庭对河流的可及性存在不平等；大坝可以在替代发展方案下帮助提供充足的灌溉水，而不会危及向下游社区的供水。这些结果有助于更好地理解流域尺度上的景观过程，确定所需的未来条件并就达到这些条件进行权衡取舍，并支持水政策的制定。

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