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Basin Initial Water Rights Allocation under Multiple Uncertainties: a Trade-off Analysis

机译：多重不确定性下的流域初始水权分配：权衡分析

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摘要

Economic losses and inequities caused by uncertainties in the availability of water intensify the competition between water sectors, making the allocation of water rights of vital importance for minimizing water conflicts. In this study, an Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Programming (ITSP) model for water rights allocation is developed that contains an industrial allocation preference coefficient and involves the risk control of Conditional Value-at-Risk theory and Gini coefficient constraints (ITSP-CG). Using China's Taihu Basin as a case study, it is shown that optimized water rights allocation schemes can reduce the risk of inequitable localized water deficits, a narrower confidence interval results in higher economic loss, and, when the confidence level is fixed, tighter control of water availability results in water efficient sectors having an increasing preference for allocation schemes. It is also shown that Basin Authorities need to trade-off the equitable allocation of water rights and economic returns over a particular planning period.
机译：由水供应的不确定性引起的经济损失和不平等加剧了水部门之间的竞争，这使得水权的分配对于最大程度地减少水冲突至关重要。在这项研究中，开发了一种用于水权分配的区间参数两阶段随机规划（ITSP）模型，该模型包含一个产业分配偏好系数，并且涉及条件风险价值理论和基尼系数约束（ITSP- CG）。以中国太湖流域为例，研究表明，优化的水权分配方案可以减少不平等的局部水赤字的风险，更窄的置信区间会导致较高的经济损失，而当置信度水平固定时，对水资源的严格控制水资源的利用导致节水型部门对分配方案的偏好日益提高。研究还表明，流域当局需要在特定计划期内权衡水权和经济收益的公平分配。

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