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首页> 外文期刊>Water Resources Management >Dam Hydrological Risk and the Design Flood Under Non-stationary Conditions
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Dam Hydrological Risk and the Design Flood Under Non-stationary Conditions

机译：坝水文风险与非静止条件下的设计洪水

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摘要

Increasing global trends in time series of annual maximum daily streamflow (AMX) raise the concern that the safety of dams and other sensitive structures is compromised. There is no defined methodology to estimate the design flood (DF) under non-stationarity; thus, the objective of this work is to evaluate the behavior of the hydrological risk of Brazilian dams due to the non-stationary nature of the AMX time series and the implications of the non-stationary nature of the AMX time series in the design of new dams. For this, the hydrological risk of 108 AMX time series was evaluated, comparing the time intervals between 1954-1984 and 1954-2014. A case study was also executed, where the DF was estimated in a non-stationary time series. The generalized distribution of extreme values (GEV) was applied in the time series analyses. The results indicate that the hydrological risk of Brazilian dams increased, and safety may have been reduced. Regarding the ranking of models, the use of physical covariates in the estimate of the DF makes the estimates more reliable. Finally, although significant trends are good indicators, they alone do not guarantee a reduction or increase in risk. It was also observed that using non-stationary models is less important than updating the estimates with newly observed data.
机译：增加全球趋势在时间序列的年度最大日本流（AMX）提高了大坝和其他敏感结构的安全性受到损害的担忧。没有明确的方法来估算非公平性下的设计洪水（DF）;因此，这项工作的目的是评估巴西水坝水文风险的行为由于AMX时间序列的非静止性质以及AMX时间序列的非静止性质在新的设计中的影响水坝。为此，评估了108 AMX时间序列的水文风险，比较了1954-1984和1954-2014之间的时间间隔。还执行了案例研究，其中DF在非静止时间序列中估计。在时间序列分析中应用极值（GEV）的广义分布。结果表明，巴西水坝的水文风险增加，安全可能已经减少。关于模型的排名，在DF的估计中使用物理协变量使得估计更可靠。最后，尽管重要的趋势是良好的指标，但他们独自不保证风险的减少或增加。还观察到，使用非静止模型比更新具有新观察到的数据的估计不太重要。

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