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A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China

机译：干旱地区区域水资源脆弱性评估的动态模型：以中国巴音林为例

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摘要

Water scarcity is a common problem in many countries, especially those located in arid zones. The vulnerability of water resources due to climate change is an imperative research focus in the field of water resources management. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water supply-and-demand process in Bayingolin, a prefecture in China, and to evaluate water resources vulnerability currently as well as in the future. The model was calibrated and validated using historical data. Three alternative scenarios were designed by changing parameters to test the vulnerability of water resources: i) increase the Wastewater Treatment Rate by 50 %; ii) decrease the Irrigation Water Demand per Hectare by 20 %; iii) increase Total Water Supply by 5 %. Results show that the baseline vulnerability of study region is high. The agricultural irrigation is the largest water use, and the water demand structure will change in future. Decreasing the irrigation water demand is the most suitable intervention to relatively reduce the vulnerability. Results also demonstrated that SD is a suitable method to explore management options for a complex water supply and demand system.
机译：在许多国家，特别是在干旱地区，缺水是一个普遍的问题。气候变化引起的水资源脆弱性是水资源管理领域的当务之急。在这项研究中，开发了一个系统动力学（SD）模型来模拟中国Bayingolin地区的供水和需求过程，并评估当前和将来的水资源脆弱性。使用历史数据对模型进行校准和验证。通过更改参数来测试水资源的脆弱性，设计了三种替代方案：i）将废水处理率提高50％； ii）将每公顷灌溉水需求降低20％； iii）将总供水量增加5％。结果表明，研究区域的基线脆弱性很高。农业灌溉是最大的用水量，未来的用水需求结构将发生变化。减少灌溉需水量是相对减少脆弱性的最合适干预措施。结果还表明，可持续发展是探索复杂供水和需求系统管理方案的合适方法。

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  • 来源
    《Water Resources Management》 |2013年第8期|3085-3101|共17页
  • 作者

    Guangyang Wu; Lanhai Li; Sajjad Ahmad; Xi Chen; Xiangliang Pan;

  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Nevada, Las Vegas,4505 S Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89154-4015, USA;

    State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    water resources management; vulnerability; system dynamics; alternative scenarios;

    机译：水资源管理;脆弱性系统动力学;替代方案;

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