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Effect of Averaging Operators in Fuzzy Optimization of Reservoir Operation

机译：平均算子在水库调度模糊优化中的作用

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Fuzzy multiobjective decision making models generally rely on the aggregation of the objectives to form a decision function. The generalized averaging operator is usually adopted for aggregating multiple and unequal objectives because it allows trade-off amongst the objectives, and has been shown to be suitable to model human decision making behavior. In the field of water resource management, most of the decision-making problems involving the generalized averaging operator implicitly assume the decision maker (DM) is rather optimistic. The analysis of the DM's behavior during the aggregation process and its impact on the performance of the system, has therefore never been addressed by many researchers and decision makers. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between decision makers' index of optimism and the long-term performance of a reservoir resource. More specifically, the generalized averaging operator, whose parameter can be interpreted as the DM's index of optimism, is imbedded into a fuzzy stochastic dynamic program (FSDP). This approach is developed and implemented to derive optimal operating policies for the hydroelectric complex of the Uruguay River basin in Southern Brazil. FSDP-derived policies with different indices of optimism are then compared with simulation. We show that system performance may be influenced by the decision maker's behavior during the aggregation, and that the optimistic assumption may not yield to satisfactory results, especially during critical time periods.
机译：模糊多目标决策模型通常依赖于目标的聚合来形成决策函数。通用平均算子通常用于汇总多个不相等的目标，因为它允许在目标之间进行权衡，并且已被证明适合于模拟人类决策行为。在水资源管理领域，涉及广义平均算子的大多数决策问题都隐含地认为决策者（DM）相当乐观。因此，许多研究人员和决策者从未对DM在聚合过程中的行为及其对系统性能的影响进行分析。本文的目的是研究决策者的乐观指数与储层资源的长期绩效之间的关系。更具体地说，将广义平均算子（其参数可以解释为DM的乐观指数）嵌入到模糊随机动态程序（FSDP）中。开发并实施了这种方法，以得出巴西南部乌拉圭河流域水电综合体的最佳运营政策。然后将具有不同乐观指数的FSDP衍生策略与仿真进行比较。我们表明，系统性能可能会受到聚合过程中决策者行为的影响，而且乐观假设可能不会产生令人满意的结果，尤其是在关键时期。

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