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首页> 外文期刊>Water resources research >Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India
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Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

机译：印度卡纳塔克邦Cauvery流域未来气候和社会经济不确定性下的水资源规划

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Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.
机译：在水资源方面，不确定性决策（DMUU）方法在发展中国家的使用率低于发达国家。高度的气候脆弱性和迅速的社会经济变化通常是发展中国家的特点，这使DMUU方法具有相关性。我们开发了一种迭代的多方法DMUU方法，包括方案生成，与利益相关者的联合生产以及水资源建模。我们采用这种方法来探索适应选项和途径的鲁棒性，以应对印度卡纳塔克邦Cauvery流域的未来气候和社会经济不确定性。使用观测到的水流，可以令人满意地对水资源模型进行校准和验证。印度夏季风（ISM）降水和需水量未来可能发生的变化被用于模拟2021年至2055年的水资源。研究了两个利益相关者确定的决策关键指标：流域范围的指标，包括法定的入溪流量要求。泰米尔纳德邦的下游状态，以及衡量班加罗尔市供水可靠性的本地指标。在模型仿真中，几乎在所有情况下，满足这些性能指标而不进行调整的能力都会降低。实施适应方案可以部分抵消变化的负面影响。根据利益相关者的优先级将选项排序到“适应途径”中，会影响指标满意度。对农业需求管理的早期关注提高了路径的稳健性，但是在流域内和流域范围内的水可利用性之间却出现了取舍。我们证明了水的可利用性和需求之间的良好平衡很容易受到未来变化和不确定性的影响。尽管存在当前和长期的规划挑战，但发展中国家的利益相关者可能会在有意义的不确定性下有意义地参与联合生产方法来制定适应性决策。

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  • 来源
    《Water resources research》 |2018年第2期|708-728|共21页
  • 作者

    Bhave Ajay Gajanan; Conway Declan; Dessai Suraje; Stainforth David A.;

  • 作者单位

    London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, London, England;

    London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, London, England;

    Univ Leeds, Sustainabil Res Inst, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England;

    London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, London, England;

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