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Potential effects of landscape change on water supplies in the presence of reservoir storage

机译：在水库蓄水的情况下景观变化对供水的潜在影响

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摘要

This work presents a set of methods to evaluate the potential effects of landscape changes on water supplies. Potential impacts are a function of the seasonality of precipitation, losses of water to evapotranspiration and deep recharge, the flow-regulating ability of watersheds, and the availability of reservoir storage. For a given reservoir capacity, simple reservoir simulations with daily precipitation and streamflow enable the determination of the maximum steady supply of water for both the existing watershed and a hypothetical counter-factual that has neither flow-regulating benefits nor any losses. These two supply values, representing land use end-members, create an envelope that defines the water-supply service and bounds the effect of landscape change on water supply. These bounds can be used to discriminate between water supplies that may be vulnerable to landscape change and those that are unlikely to be affected. Two indices of the water-supply service exhibit substantial variability across 593 watersheds in the continental United States. Rcross, the reservoir capacity at which landscape change is unlikely to have any detrimental effect on water supply has an interquartile range of 0.14-4% of mean-annual-streamflow. Steep, forested watersheds with seasonal climates tend to have greater service values, and the indices of water-supply service are positively correlated with runoff ratios during the months with lowest flows.
机译：这项工作提出了一套方法来评估景观变化对供水的潜在影响。潜在影响取决于降水的季节性，水分因蒸散和深层补给而流失，流域的流量调节能力以及水库的可利用性。对于给定的水库容量，简单的水库模拟（每天的降水量和流量）可以确定现有流域和既没有流量调节效益也没有任何损失的假想事实的最大稳定供水量。这两个代表土地使用最终成员的供应价值创造了一个包络，它定义了供水服务，并限制了景观变化对供水的影响。这些界限可用于区分可能易受景观变化影响的供水和不太可能受到影响的供水。在美国大陆的593个集水区中，供水服务的两个指数显示出很大的变化性。在Rcross中，景观变化不太可能对供水产生不利影响的水库容量的四分位间距为年平均流量的0.14-4％。具有季节性气候的陡峭森林流域往往具有更高的服务价值，在流量最低的月份中，供水服务的指数与径流比呈正相关。

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