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Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback

机译：确定因果土壤水分-降水反馈的混杂因素

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摘要

Identification of causal links in the land-atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long-timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture-precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data.
机译：识别陆地-大气系统中的因果关系对于构建和测试地表和一般环流模型非常重要。但是，土地和大气层之间通过大量复杂，相互依存的过程高度耦合并联系在一起。诸如Granger因果关系之类的统计方法可以帮助从观测数据中识别出反馈，而与物理过程和时空分辨率效应的不同参数化（这些参数化会影响模型中的反馈）无关。但是，统计因果关系识别方法很容易被误用，从而导致有关反馈强度和信号的错误结论。在这里，我们讨论在确定观测值和模型输出中的因果土壤降水反馈时必须考虑的三个因素：季节和年际变化，降水持续性和内生性。忽略这些因素的影响已在模拟和观察数据中得到证明。结果表明，长期尺度的变化和降水的持久性可能对检测到的土壤水分-降水反馈强度有实质性的影响，而内生性的影响较小，通常被测量误差掩盖，因此在分析模型时更可能成为问题数据或高度准确的观测数据。

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  • 来源
    《Water resources research》 |2017年第7期|5531-5544|共14页
  • 作者

    Tuttle Samuel E.; Salvucci Guido D.;

  • 作者单位

    Mt Holyoke Coll, Dept Geol & Geog, S Hadley, MA 01075 USA;

    Boston Univ, Dept Earth & Environm, Boston, MA 02215 USA;

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