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Representing low-frequency variability in continuous rainfall simulations: A hierarchical random Bartlett Lewis continuous rainfall generation model

机译：在连续降雨模拟中表示低频变化：分层随机Bartlett Lewis连续降雨生成模型

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摘要

Low-frequency variability, in the form of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, plays a key role in shaping local weather systems. However, current continuous stochastic rainfall models do not account for this variability in their simulations. Here a modified Random Pulse Bartlett Lewis stochastic generation model is presented for continuous rainfall simulation exhibiting low-frequency variability. Termed the Hierarchical Random Bartlett Lewis Model (HRBLM), the model features a hierarchical structure to represent a range of rainfall characteristics associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation with parameters conditioned to vary as functions of relevant climatic states. Long observational records of near-continuous rainfall at various locations in Australia are used to formulate and evaluate the model. The results indicate clear benefits of using the hierarchical climate-dependent structure proposed. In addition to accurately representing the wet spells characteristics and observed low-frequency variability, the model replicates the inter-annual variability of the antecedent rainfall preceding the extremes, which is known to be of considerable importance in design flood estimation applications.
机译：厄尔尼诺-南方涛动形式的低频变化在形成当地天气系统中起着关键作用。但是，当前的连续随机降雨模型不能在模拟中解决这一可变性。在这里，提出了一种改进的随机脉冲巴特利特·刘易斯随机生成模型，用于连续降雨模拟，具有低频可变性。该模型被称为分层随机巴特利特·刘易斯模型（HRBLM），具有分层结构，可表示与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动有关的一系列降雨特征，其参数条件根据相关气候状态的函数而变化。该模型在澳大利亚各个地方的近乎连续降雨的长期观测记录被用来制定和评估该模型。结果表明，使用提议的分层气候相关结构具有明显的好处。除了精确表示湿法术特征和观察到的低频变化外，该模型还复制了极端事件之前的前降雨的年际变化，这在设计洪水估算应用中具有重要意义。

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  • 来源
    《Water resources research》 |2015年第12期|9995-10007|共13页
  • 作者

    Wasko Conrad; Pui Alexander; Sharma Ashish; Mehrotra Rajeshwar; Jeremiah Erwin;

  • 作者单位

    Univ New S Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia;

    Univ New S Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia|Willis Re Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia;

    Univ New S Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia;

    Univ New S Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia;

    Univ New S Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia;

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