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Modeling irrigation behavior in groundwater systems

机译：对地下水系统中的灌溉行为进行建模

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Integrated hydro-economic models have been widely applied to water management problems in regions of intensive groundwater-fed irrigation. However, policy interpretations may be limited as most existing models do not explicitly consider two important aspects of observed irrigation decision making, namely the limits on instantaneous irrigation rates imposed by well yield and the intraseasonal structure of irrigation planning. We develop a new modeling approach for determining irrigation demand that is based on observed farmer behavior and captures the impacts on production and water use of both well yield and climate. Through a case study of irrigated corn production in the Texas High Plains region of the United States we predict optimal irrigation strategies under variable levels of groundwater supply, and assess the limits of existing models for predicting land and groundwater use decisions by farmers. Our results show that irrigation behavior exhibits complex nonlinear responses to changes in groundwater availability. Declining well yields induce large reductions in the optimal size of irrigated area and irrigation use as constraints on instantaneous application rates limit the ability to maintain sufficient soil moisture to avoid negative impacts on crop yield. We demonstrate that this important behavioral response to limited groundwater availability is not captured by existing modeling approaches, which therefore may be unreliable predictors of irrigation demand, agricultural profitability, and resilience to climate change and aquifer depletion.
机译：综合的水力经济模型已被广泛应用于地下水密集灌溉区的水管理问题。但是，政策解释可能会受到限制，因为大多数现有模型并未明确考虑观测到的灌溉决策的两个重要方面，即井产量对瞬时灌溉速率的限制以及灌溉计划的季节内结构。我们基于观察到的农民行为，开发了一种新的建模方法来确定灌溉需求，并捕获了油井产量和气候对生产和用水的影响。通过对美国德克萨斯州高平原地区灌溉玉米产量的案例研究，我们预测了在可变地下水供应水平下的最佳灌溉策略，并评估了用于预测农民土地和地下水使用决策的现有模型的局限性。我们的结果表明，灌溉行为表现出对地下水可利用量变化的复杂非线性响应。井产量下降导致灌溉面积的最佳减少，灌溉使用量大幅度减少，因为瞬时施肥量的限制限制了保持足够的土壤水分以避免对作物产量产生不利影响的能力。我们证明，现有的建模方法无法捕捉到对有限地下水可利用性的重要行为响应，因此对灌溉需求，农业盈利能力以及对气候变化和含水层枯竭的适应性可能是不可靠的预测指标。

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