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首页> 外文期刊>Water resources research >Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood risk
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Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood risk

机译：使用区域气候模型预测来检测季节性极端降水的变化：对河流洪水风险的管理意义

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摘要

There is growing evidence of coherent, global patterns of change in annual precipitation and runoff with high latitudes experiencing increases consistent with climate model projections. This paper describes a methodology for estimating detection times for changes in seasonal precipitation extremes. The approach is illustrated using changes in UK precipitation projected by the European Union PRUDENCE climate model ensemble. We show that because of high variability from year to year and confounding factors, detection of anthropogenic climate change at regional scales is not generally expected for decades to come. Overall, the earliest detection times were found for 10 day winter precipitation totals with 10 year return period in SW England. In this case, formal detection could be possible within a decade from now if the climate model projections are realized. The outlook for changes in summer flash flood risk is highly uncertain. Our analysis further demonstrates that existing precautionary allowances for climate change used for flood management may not be sufficiently robust in NE England and east Scotland. These findings imply that for certain types of flood mechanism, adaptation decisions might have to be taken in advance of formally detected changes in flood risk. This reinforces the case for long-term environmental monitoring and reporting of climate change indices at "sentinel" locations.
机译：越来越多的证据表明，高纬度地区的年降水量和径流量变化具有连贯的全球变化规律，与气候模型预测相符。本文介绍了一种估算季节性降水极端变化的检测时间的方法。欧盟PRUDENCE气候模型集成预测英国降水的变化说明了这种方法。我们表明，由于每年之间的高度可变性和混杂因素，通常预计在未来几十年不会在区域范围内检测到人为气候变化。总体而言，在英格兰西南部，发现最早的冬季总降水量为10天，返回期为10年。在这种情况下，如果实现了气候模型预测，那么从现在起十年内就可以进行正式检测。夏季山洪暴发风险变化的前景高度不确定。我们的分析进一步证明，英格兰东北部和苏格兰东部现有的用于洪水管理的气候变化预防措施可能不够充分。这些发现表明，对于某些类型的洪水机制，可能必须在正式检测到洪水风险变化之前做出适应性决策。这加强了对“前哨”地点进行长期环境监测和气候变化指数报告的理由。

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  • 来源
    《Water resources research》 |2010年第3期|p.W03525.1-W03525.17|共17页
  • 作者

    H. J. Fowler; R. L. Wilby;

  • 作者单位

    Water Resource Systems Research Laboratory, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK;

    Centre for Hydrological and Ecosystem Science, Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK;

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