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From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: A case study of water resource management in the southwest of England

机译：从气候模型集成到气候变化影响和适应：以英格兰西南部水资源管理为例

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The majority of climate change impacts and adaptation studies so far have been based on at most a few deterministic realizations of future climate, usually representing different emissions scenarios. Large ensembles of climate models are increasingly available either as ensembles of opportunity or perturbed physics ensembles, providing a wealth of additional data that is potentially useful for improving adaptation strategies to climate change. Because of the novelty of this ensemble information, there is little previous experience of practical applications or of the added value of this information for impacts and adaptation decision making. This paper evaluates the value of perturbed physics ensembles of climate models for understanding and planning public water supply under climate change. We deliberately select water resource models that are already used by water supply companies and regulators on the assumption that uptake of information from large ensembles of climate models will be more likely if it does not involve significant investment in new modeling tools and methods. We illustrate the methods with a case study on the Wimbleball water resource zone in the southwest of England. This zone is sufficiently simple to demonstrate the utility of the approach but with enough complexity to allow a variety of different decisions to be made. Our research shows that the additional information contained in the climate model ensemble provides a better understanding of the possible ranges of future conditions, compared to the use of single-model scenarios. Furthermore, with careful presentation, decision makers will find the results from large ensembles of models more accessible and be able to more easily compare the merits of different management options and the timing of different adaptation. The overhead in additional time and expertise for carrying out the impacts analysis will be justified by the increased quality of the decision-making process. We remark that even though we have focused our study on a water resource system in the United Kingdom, our conclusions about the added value of climate model ensembles in guiding adaptation decisions can be generalized to other sectors and geographical regions.
机译：到目前为止，大多数气候变化影响和适应性研究最多都基于对未来气候的确定性认识，通常代表不同的排放情景。随着机会的聚集或物理扰动的聚集，越来越多的大型气候模型可供使用，从而提供了大量的附加数据，这些数据可能对改进适应气候变化的策略很有用。由于该集成信息的新颖性，因此很少有实际应用的经验或该信息对影响和适应决策的附加价值。本文评估了气候模型扰动的物理集合对于理解和规划气候变化下的公共供水的价值。我们特意选择供水公司和监管机构已经使用的水资源模型，其前提是，如果不对新的建模工具和方法进行大量投资，则更可能从大型气候模型中获取信息。我们以英格兰西南部温布尔伯水资源带的案例研究为例，说明了这些方法。该区域足够简单以证明该方法的实用性，但具有足够的复杂性以允许做出各种不同的决定。我们的研究表明，与使用单模式情景相比，气候模式合集中包含的其他信息可以更好地理解未来条件的可能范围。此外，通过仔细地介绍，决策者将发现来自大型模型集合的结果更易于访问，并且能够更轻松地比较不同管理选项的优缺点和不同适应的时机。决策过程质量的提高将证明进行影响分析所需的额外时间和专业知识的开销。我们指出，尽管我们将研究重点放在了英国的水资源系统上，但有关气候模型集合在指导适应性决策中的附加价值的结论仍可推广到其他部门和地理区域。

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  • 来源
    《Water resources research》 |2009年第8期|W08419.1-W08419.21|共21页
  • 作者

    Ana Lopez; Fai Fung; Mark New; Glenn Watts; Alan Weston; Robert L. Wilby;

  • 作者单位

    Tyndall Centre for Climate Change and Climate Systems and Policy Group, School of Geography and Environment, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK London School of Economics, University of London, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK;

    Tyndall Centre for Climate Change and Climate Systems and Policy Group, School of Geography and Environment, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK;

    Tyndall Centre for Climate Change and Climate Systems and Policy Group, School of Geography and Environment, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK;

    Science Department, Environment Agency, Government Buildings, Burghill Road, Bristol BS10 6BF, UK;

    Water Resources Planning, Environment Agency, Mauley House, Kestrel Way, Exeter EX2 7LQ, UK;

    Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK;

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