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首页> 外文期刊>Water resources research >Summer Monsoon Rainfall Patterns and Predictability over Southeast China
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Summer Monsoon Rainfall Patterns and Predictability over Southeast China

机译：夏季季风降雨量与中国东南部的可预测性

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This study advances the use of the Self-organizing Map (SOM) to identify the summer monsoon rainfall patterns over Southeast China (SEC), using 272 gauge records from May to August. Three distinct rain belts over the Huai River basin (HRB), the Lower Yangtze River basin (LYRB) and the South Coast region (SCR) are found. Their subseasonal variability strongly agrees with the northward progression of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) front in a stepwise fashion. We find that precipitation in the SCR and HRB rain belts exhibit significant changes in the mid-1990s, while the 1990s is the most active decade for the LYRB rain belt. Promising predictability of average daily rainfall over these three regions is obtained, with about 39% to 50% of the total variance explained by the circulation informed regression models. Both leave-one-year-out cross-validation and blind prediction verify the regression performance. The western North Pacific Subtropical High phases, mid-latitude blocking high anomaly over northeast China and upper-level divergence in SEC are found to best explain the variability of the rain belts. The newly proposed Russia-China wave patterns (western/central Russia - north of Tibetan Plateau - SEC) and teleconnection between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the rain belts also offer additional predictability. Findings from this work may advance the understanding of the EASM rain belts, and offer insights to the source of bias for numerical simulations of daily summer monsoon rainfall in the region.
机译：本研究推进了自组织地图（SOM），以确定夏季季风降雨模式在中国东南（秒），使用5月至8月的272号仪表。找到了淮河流域（HRB），下游较低的长江盆地（LYRB）和南海岸地区（SCR）的三个不同的雨风。他们的临时变异性强烈同意东亚夏季季风（EASM）前沿的北方进展。我们发现SCR和HRB雨皮中的降水在20世纪90年代中期具有重大变化，而1990年代是Lyrb雨带最活跃的十年。获得了这三个区域的平均降雨的预测性，循环通知回归模型的总差异约为39％至50％。休假 - 一岁的交叉验证和盲预测验证了回归性能。西北太平洋亚热带高阶段，中际阻断高异常在东北地区的高异常和秒的上层分歧，最好解释雨风的可变性。新提议的俄罗斯 - 中国波纹（俄罗斯西部/俄罗斯 - >北藏高原 - > SEC）和EL Nino-Southern振荡和雨中之间的遥连接也提供了额外的可预测性。这项工作的调查结果可能会提高对EASM雨腰带的理解，并对该地区日常夏季季风降雨的数值模拟偏见的偏见探讨。

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