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Urban water demand assessment for sustainable water resources management, under climate change and socioeconomic changes

机译：在气候变化和社会经济变化下，城市水需求可持续水资源管理评估

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摘要

The relationship between water abstraction and water availability has turned into a major stress factor in the urban exploitation of water resources. The situation is expected to be sharpened in the future due to the intensity of extreme meteorological phenomena, and socio-economic changes affecting water demand. In the city of Volos, Greece, the number of water counters has been tripled during the last four decades. This study attempts to simulate the city's network, supply system and water demand through a forecasting model. The forecast was examined under several situations, based on climate change and socio-economic observations of the city, using meteorological, water pricing, users' income, level of education, family members, floor and residence size variables. The most interesting outputs are: (a) the impact of each variable in the water consumption and (b) water balance under four management scenarios, indicating the future water management conditions of the broader area, including demand and supply management. The results proved that rational water management can lead to remarkable water conservation. The simulation of real scenarios and future situations in the city's water demand and balance, is the innovative element of the study, making it capable of supporting the local water utility.
机译：水抽象与水可用性之间的关系变成了水资源城市开发的主要压力因素。由于极端气象现象的强度，由于极端气象现象的强度以及影响水需求的社会经济变化，情况将在未来锐化。在希腊沃洛斯市，在过去的四十年中，水柜台的数量已经增加了两倍。本研究试图通过预测模型模拟城市的网络，供应系统和水需求。根据中国气候变化和社会经济观察，使用气象，水价，用户的收入，教育水平，家庭成员，地板和居住尺寸变量，预测在几个情况下审查了预测。最有趣的产出是：（a）每种变量在耗水中的影响和（b）在四种管理情景下的水平，表明更广泛区域的未来水管理条件，包括需求和供应管理。结果证明，合理的水管理可能导致显着的水资源保护。在城市的水需求和平衡中的实际情景和未来情况的模拟是该研究的创新因素，使其能够支持当地的水实用。

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