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首页> 外文期刊>Water science & technology >Effect of seasonal climatic variance on water main failure frequencies in moderate climate regions
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Effect of seasonal climatic variance on water main failure frequencies in moderate climate regions

机译：季节气候变化对中等气候区水主破坏频率的影响

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摘要

The yearly water main failure frequency is a central performance indicator to describe the structural quality of a water distribution network. Besides age related deterioration, events such as severe climatic conditions or intensified third party construction may cause sudden seasonal increases in failure frequency trends. For the cold regions of Canada and the dry regions of Australia, several studies exist describing the impacts of climatic failure frequencies on water main failure variations. Failure prediction modelling applied to Austrian supply systems have shown that irregularities in overall failure trends were not explainable with commonly used model covariates like material, vintage, diameter or the number of previous breaks. Analysing the monthly failure frequencies of several Austrian utilities, seasonal differences and variations in failure frequencies are recognizable. The research described in this paper therefore focused on analysing if climatic impacts are responsible for these variations, in a first step, climatic indicators, which are able to describe seasonal climatic variations in moderate climate regions, were derived. In a next step the correlation between summer and winter failure frequencies to these climatic indicators was analysed. The indicators taken into account were, e.g. the decisive freezing index (DFI), the summer rain deficit (RD_S) or the amount of successive hot days (AHD). The research has shown that in all investigated climatic zones of Austria, the severity of the winter season influences failure frequencies. A dependency between winter failure frequency and the DFI was significant especially for rigid material types and for diameters up to 200 mm. So far, soil moisture effects have only shown a slight significance. Nevertheless, the indicator AHD has shown a correlation to failure frequencies in the dryer climate zones of Austria. This is of further interest as it is very likely that the AHD is going to increase due to climate change.
机译：每年的水主管故障频率是描述供水网络结构质量的主要性能指标。除了与年龄相关的恶化之外，诸如严峻的气候条件或第三方建设加剧之类的事件还可能导致故障频率趋势的季节性突然增加。对于加拿大的寒冷地区和澳大利亚的干旱地区，已有数项研究描述了气候破坏频率对水主破坏变化的影响。应用于奥地利供应系统的故障预测模型表明，使用材料，寿命，直径或先前断裂次数等常用的模型协变量无法解释整体故障趋势中的不规则现象。分析奥地利几家公用事业公司的每月故障频率，可以发现故障频率的季节性差异和变化。因此，本文所述的研究重点在于分析气候影响是否是这些变化的原因，第一步，得出能够描述中等气候区域季节性气候变化的气候指标。下一步，分析了夏季和冬季故障频率与这些气候指标之间的相关性。考虑到的指标例如是决定性的冰冻指数（DFI），夏季降雨不足（RD_S）或连续高温天数（AHD）。研究表明，在奥地利所有已调查的气候带中，冬季的严重程度都会影响故障频率。冬季失效频率与DFI之间的相关性非常重要，特别是对于刚性材料类型以及直径最大为200 mm的材料。到目前为止，土壤水分的影响仅显示出很小的意义。尽管如此，AHD指标显示出与奥地利干燥气候区的故障频率相关。这引起了进一步的关注，因为由于气候变化，AHD很有可能会增加。

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  • 来源
    《Water science & technology》 |2013年第2期|435-446|共12页
  • 作者

    D. Fuchs-Hanusch; F. Friedl; R. Scheucher; B. Kogseder; D. Muschalla;

  • 作者单位

    Graz university of Technology,Institute of Urban water Management and Landscape Engineering,Stremayrgasse 10/1,8010, Graz,Austria;

    Graz university of Technology,Institute of Urban water Management and Landscape Engineering,Stremayrgasse 10/1,8010, Graz,Austria;

    Graz university of Technology,Institute of Urban water Management and Landscape Engineering,Stremayrgasse 10/1,8010, Graz,Austria;

    Graz university of Technology,Institute of Urban water Management and Landscape Engineering,Stremayrgasse 10/1,8010, Graz,Austria;

    Graz university of Technology,Institute of Urban water Management and Landscape Engineering,Stremayrgasse 10/1,8010, Graz,Austria;

  • 收录信息 美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate change; failure prediction covariates; freezing index; rain deficit; water supply pipe;

    机译：气候变化;故障预测协变量;冰冻指数;雨水不足;供水管;

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