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The Transformation and Performance of Emerging Market Economies Across the Great Divide of the Global Financial Crisis

机译：跨越全球金融危机的巨大鸿沟，新兴市场经济体的转型与绩效

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摘要

The process of central bank (CB) evolution by emerging market economies (EMEs), including central bank independence (CBI) and transparency (CBT), converged towards that of the advanced economies (AEs) before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2008. It was greatly aided by the adoption of inflation targeting. In this paper we evaluate this convergence process for a representative set of EMEs and AEs since the disruption of the GFC. We use several measures of institutional development (changes in CBI, changes in CBT, changes in a new index of institutional resilience and changes in a new measure of CB credibility). We then use panel VARs based on both factor models and observed data to ascertain the impact of global shocks, financial shocks, trade shocks and credibility shocks on the EMEs versus the AEs. We find that although some EMEs did maintain the levels of CBI and CBT that they had before the crisis, on average they experienced a decline in institutional resilience to shocks and in the quality of their governance. Moreover it appears that CB credibility in EMEs was more fragile than was the case for the AEs in the face of the global shocks (from the US) than was the case for the AEs.
机译：在2007年全球金融危机（GFC）之前，新兴市场经济体（EME）的中央银行（CB）演变过程，包括中央银行独立性（CBI）和透明度（CBT），已向发达经济体（AEs）过渡。 -2008。采用通货膨胀目标制对它提供了极大的帮助。在本文中，我们评估了自全球金融危机以来，代表性的新兴市场经济体和新兴市场经济体的收敛过程。我们使用了几种制度发展的衡量标准（CBI的变化，CBT的变化，新的机构弹性指数的变化以及CB信誉的新度量的变化）。然后，我们使用基于因子模型和观察数据的面板VAR来确定全球冲击，金融冲击，贸易冲击和信誉冲击对EME与AE的影响。我们发现，尽管一些新兴市场经济体确实保持了危机前的CBI和CBT水平，但平均而言，它们的机构抵御冲击能力和治理质量却下降了。此外，面对全球冲击（来自美国），新兴市场经济体中的可换股债券信誉似乎比新兴市场中的脆弱性要强于新兴市场。

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  • 来源
    《Working Paper Series》 |2019年第26342期|A1-A21-74|共76页
  • 作者

    Michael D. Bordo; Pierre Siklos;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Economics Rutgers University New Jersey Hall 75 Hamilton Street New Brunswick NJ 08901 and NBER;

    Wilfrid Laurier University 75 University Ave Waterloo ON CANADA N2L 3C5;

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