THE CORONAVIRUS AND THE GREAT INFLUENZA PANDEMIC: LESSONS FROM THE 'SPANISH FLU' FOR THE CORONAVIRUS'S POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON MORTALITY AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

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THE CORONAVIRUS AND THE GREAT INFLUENZA PANDEMIC: LESSONS FROM THE 'SPANISH FLU' FOR THE CORONAVIRUS'S POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON MORTALITY AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

机译：冠状病毒和巨大的流感大流行：来自“西班牙流感”的经验教训，对冠状病毒对死亡率和经济活动的潜在影响

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Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Pandemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.

机译：1918-1920年大流行期间的死亡率和经济收缩为冠状病毒（COVID-19）下的转归提供了合理的上限。 43个国家/地区的数据隐含了1918-1920年与流感相关的死亡人数，为3900万人，占世界人口的2％，按当前人口计算，这意味着1.5亿人死亡。有关1918-1920年流感死亡人数和第一次世界大战期间战争死亡人数的年度信息的回归表明，在典型国家中，流感造成的GDP和消费量分别下降了6％和8％。还有一些证据表明，较高的流感死亡率降低了股票特别是短期政府票据的实际收益。

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《Working Paper Series》 |2020年第26866期|a1-a11-25|共26页
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Department of Economics Littauer Center 218 Harvard University Cambridge MA 02138 and NBER;

Dodge & Cox;

EverLife;

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1. Lessons from the past: Familial aggregation analysis of fatal pandemic influenza (Spanish flu) in Iceland in 1918 [J] . Magnus Gottfredsson, Bjarni V. Halldorsson, Stefan Jonsson, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America . 2008,第4期

机译：过去的经验：1918年冰岛致命大流行性流感（西班牙流感）的家庭聚集分析
2. Intention of nurses to accept coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination and change of intention to accept seasonal influenza vaccination during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A cross-sectional survey [J] . Wang Kailu, Wong Eliza Lai Yi, Ho Kin Fai, Vaccine . 2020,第45期

机译：护士意向接受冠状病毒疾病2019疫苗接种和变更在冠状病毒疾病中接受季节性流感疫苗疫苗2019大流行：横断面调查
3. The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: The case of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus [J] . George Verikios Socio-economic planning sciences . 2020,第Sepa期

机译：传染病爆发的动态效应：大流行流感和人冠状病毒的情况
4. The Economic and Technical Factors During Coronavirus Pandemic in affected countries [C] . Tushar Tanmay, Akanksha Bhardwaj, Shilpi Sharma International Conference on Cloud Computing, Data Science and Engineering . 2021

机译：受影响国家冠状病毒大流行病的经济和技术因素
5. The Role of Ambient Temperature and Influenza Outbreaks: A Case Study of the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic [D] . Basar, Ashton. 2019

机译：环境温度和流感爆发的作用 - 以1918年西班牙流感大流行为例
6. From the Cover: Lessons from the past: Familial aggregation analysis of fatal pandemic influenza (Spanish flu) in Iceland in 1918 [O] . Magnús Gottfredsson, Bjarni V. Halldórsson, Stefán Jónsson, 2008

机译：从封面开始：过去的经验：1918年冰岛致命大流行性流感（西班牙流感）的家庭聚集分析
7. Do Stock Markets Catch the Flu? We examine the impact of influenza on the U.S. stock market. A higher incidence of flu is associated with decreased trading, decreased volatility, and higher bid-ask spreads. We also find some evidence that more flu implies lower stock returns. Consistent with the flu affecting institutional investors and market-makers, the decrease in trading activity and volatility is primarily driven by the incidence of influenza in the greater New York City area. However, the effect of the flu on bid-ask spreads and returns is driven by the incidence of flu nationally. We provide estimates of the potential impacts of a pandemic on equity returns. [O] . Yiuman Tse, Brian C. McTier, John K. Wald 100

机译：股市是否会引发流感？我们研究了流感对美国股市的影响。流感发病率较高与交易减少，波动性降低和买卖差价较高有关。我们还发现一些证据表明，更多流感意味着股票收益率下降与影响机构投资者和做市商的流感一致，交易活动和波动性的下降主要是由于纽约市大区的流感发病率所致。然而，流感对买卖差价和回报的影响是由全国流感的发生率所驱动的。我们提供了大流行对股权回报的潜在影响的估计。

THE CORONAVIRUS AND THE GREAT INFLUENZA PANDEMIC: LESSONS FROM THE 'SPANISH FLU' FOR THE CORONAVIRUS'S POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON MORTALITY AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

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