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Bilateral trust and trade: Evidence from China

机译：双边信任与贸易：来自中国的证据

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摘要

By changing transaction costs, trust can be a determinant of interregional economic exchange. Based on data sets of bilateral trust and trade at provincial level in China, this study investigates the trust-trade relationship empirically. As a channel of affecting bilateral trade, bilateral trust is incorporated into gravity models. By controlling for institutional quality, labour migration and other economic indicators, the baseline results show that the bilateral trust is positively correlated with the bilateral trade significantly. The sensitivity tests using an alternative estimation of interprovincial trade in China also confirm this positive trust-trade relationship. In addition, we use an instrumental-variable estimation to control for the endogeneity of bilateral trust, and find that the trust-trade relationship is robust. This relationship seems to reveal that improving bilateral trust can be a new channel of boosting bilateral trade.
机译：通过改变交易成本，信任可以成为区域间经济交流的决定因素。基于中国省级双边信任与贸易的数据集，本研究以实证研究关系。作为影响双边贸易的渠道，双边信任已纳入重力模型。通过控制制度质量，劳务移民和其他经济指标，基线结果表明，双边信任与双边贸易正相关。使用对中国省际贸易的另一种估计进行的敏感性测试也证实了这种积极的信任-贸易关系。此外，我们使用工具变量估计来控制双边信任的内生性，并发现信任-贸易关系是稳健的。这种关系似乎表明，增进双边信任可以成为促进双边贸易的新渠道。

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