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Strategic Competition in the Asian Mega-regionalism and Optimal Choices

机译：亚洲大区域主义的战略竞争与最优选择

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摘要

The strategic interactions of mega-regional blocs such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and even the One Belt and One Road' (OBOR) in the Asia-Pacific reflects the dual purposes of large countries as they seek not only the welfare gains from trade liberalisation, but also the leadership in a trading bloc or the right to set the rules. This paper designs two sequential network formation games - a leadership game and a trade liberalisation game, to model this phenomenon and predict the equilibrium result. In the first game, we show how the incorporation of leadership affects the choices among different trading structures. Specifically, we show that the parallel trading blocs emerge as the equilibrium outcome only when there exists large loss from giving up leadership. In the second game, we describe how the globalisation is arrived and conduct numerical simulations to test our theoretical results. The predictions of the game are supported by the real-world data based on simulation results.
机译：诸如跨太平洋伙伴关系（TPP），区域全面经济伙伴关系乃至亚太一带一路（OBOR）之类的大区域集团的战略互动反映了大国的双重目的不仅寻求贸易自由化带来的福利收益，还寻求贸易集团的领导者或制定规则的权利。本文设计了两个连续的网络形成博弈-领导博弈和贸易自由化博弈，以对这种现象进行建模并预测均衡结果。在第一个游戏中，我们展示了领导力的整合如何影响不同交易结构之间的选择。具体来说，我们表明，只有在放弃领导权带来巨大损失的情况下，并行交易集团才会作为均衡结果出现。在第二个游戏中，我们描述了全球化是如何到达的，并进行了数值模拟以检验我们的理论结果。基于模拟结果的真实数据支持对游戏的预测。

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  • 来源
    《The World Economy》 |2018年第8期|2102-2128|共27页
  • 作者

    Lin Guijun; Pei Jiansuo; Zhang Jin;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Int Trade & Econ, Beijing, Peoples R China;

    Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Int Trade & Econ, Beijing, Peoples R China;

    Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Int Trade & Econ, Beijing, Peoples R China;

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