Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis

Verikios George; Sullivan Maura; Stojanovski Pane; Giesecke James; Woo Gordon

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Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis

机译：大流行性流感评估区域风险：一种情景分析

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We analyse the economic risks from two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence-infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence-low infectiousness event and a low virulence-high infectiousness event. Our analysis involves linking an epidemiological model and a quarterly computable general equilibrium model. We find that global economic activity is more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. Regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy face greater risks of negative effects than less integrated regions.

机译：我们分析了两种流感大流行的经济风险，这两种流感大流行代表了可能的大流行的毒力-传染性连续性的极端情况：高毒力-低传染性事件和低毒力-高传染性事件。我们的分析涉及将流行病学模型与季度可计算一般均衡模型联系起来。我们发现，在其他所有条件相同的情况下，高感染率而不是高毒力的大流行对全球经济活动的影响更大。与经济一体化程度较低的地区相比，经济与世界经济高度融合的地区面临更大的负面影响。

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《The World Economy》 |2016年第8期|1225-1255|共31页
作者
Verikios George; Sullivan Maura; Stojanovski Pane; Giesecke James; Woo Gordon;
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KPMG, Brisbane, Qld, Australia;

Risk Management Solut, Washington, DC USA|Risk Management Solut, London, England;

Risk Management Solut, Asia Risk Ctr, San Francisco, CA USA;

Victoria Univ, Ctr Policy Studies, Melbourne, Vic, Australia;

Risk Management Solut, Washington, DC USA|Risk Management Solut, London, England;

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1. Standardizing Scenarios to Assess the Need to Respond to an Influenza Pandemic [J] . Meltzer Martin I., Gambhir Manoj, Atkins Charisma Y., Clinical infectious diseases . 2015,第Suppla1期

机译：标准化方案以评估应对流感大流行的需求
2. Assessing the role of basic control measures,antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza:scenarios for the US,UK and the Netherlands [J] . M.Nuno, G.Chowell, A.B.Gumel Journal of the Royal Society Interface . 2007,第14期

机译：评估基础控制措施，抗病毒药和疫苗在缩减大流行流感上的作用：美国，英国和荷兰的情景
3. Choosing pandemic parameters for pandemic preparedness planning: A comparison of pandemic scenarios prior to and following the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic [J] . Health policy . 2013,第1期

机译：为大流行准备计划选择大流行参数：2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行前后大流行情况的比较
4. The Risk Communication Strategies between Government and the Public for Pandemic Influenza:Lessons from the Risk Communication of Beijing Government in Pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 [C] . Tian Tang, Zongchao Peng Transactions on emergency management (Special Issue).;vol. 5, no. 5, Sep.8, 2010. . 2010

机译：大流行性流感政府与公众之间的风险交流策略：来自北京政府在甲型H1N1大流行中的风险交流的经验教训
5. Stochastic risk analysis of influenza pandemic on interdependent workforce sectors using input-output modeling. [D] . El Haimar, Amine. 2015

机译：使用投入产出模型对相互依赖的劳动力部门进行流感大流行的随机风险分析。
6. Assessing the role of basic control measures antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US UK and the Netherlands [O] . M Nuño, G Chowell, A.B Gumel 2007

机译：评估基本控制措施抗病毒药和疫苗在遏制大流行性流感中的作用：美国英国和荷兰的情景
7. Standardizing Scenarios to Assess the Need to Respond to an Influenza Pandemic [O] . Martin I. Meltzer, Manoj Gambhir, Charisma Y. Atkins, 2015

机译：标准化方案，以评估响应流感大流行的必要性

Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis

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