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The Gravity of China's African Export Promise

机译:中国对非洲出口的承诺的重要性

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摘要

Africa's largest trade partner, China, criticised for exchanging resources for manufactures, has promised to increase imports and optimise the structure of trade with Africa. Using a gravity model of China's imports for the years 1995-2009, we explore potential dynamics for this promise, uniquely accounting for market economy recognition and Taiwan recognition. The former is associated with increased imports, while the latter effect is ambiguous and statistically insignificant. Comparison of projected against actual imports across three growth-path-aligned economic geography typologies - resource-rich; landlocked and resource-poor; coastal and resource-poor - sets out China's imports trends in an abstract framework of African export potential. We find not only under' importing across a majority of resource-poor countries. We also find that current trade policy is the least applicable to these comparatively poor exporters' trade with China. If the latter are to serve a broader catalytic role in Africa's regional industrial transformation as compared to the role of coastal and resource-poor countries in regional economic transformation in Asia and Latin America, China-Africa trade and investment policies may need additional thinking.
机译:非洲最大的贸易伙伴中国因为制造商品交换资源而备受批评,已承诺增加进口并优化与非洲的贸易结构。使用1995-2009年中国进口的引力模型,我们探索了实现这一承诺的潜在动力,特别考虑了市场经济认可度和台湾认可度。前者与进口增加有关,而后者的影响是模棱两可的,从统计上讲是微不足道的。三种与增长路径一致的经济地理类型的预期进口量与实际进口量的比较-资源丰富;内陆和资源贫乏的;沿海和资源匮乏的国家-在非洲出口潜力的抽象框架中阐明了中国的进口趋势。我们发现不仅在大多数资源匮乏的国家中都有进口。我们还发现,当前的贸易政策最不适用于这些相对较弱的出口商与中国的贸易。如果与沿海国家和资源匮乏的国家在亚洲和拉丁美洲的区域经济转型中所起的作用相比,后者在非洲的区域工业转型中起更广泛的催化作用,那么中非贸易和投资政策可能需要更多的思考。

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  • 来源
    《The World Economy》 |2015年第6期|913-934|共22页
  • 作者单位

    Peking Univ, Sch Econ, Dept Int Econ, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China;

    Univ Nottingham, Ningbo, Zhejiang, Peoples R China|Univ Nottingham, Sch Contemporary Chinese Studies, Ningbo, Zhejiang, Peoples R China|Univ Melbourne, Sch Hist & Philosoph Studies, Melbourne, Vic, Australia;

    Peking Univ, Sch Econ, Dept Int Econ, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China;

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