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Evaluating sustainability and resilience of complex systems using network theory.

机译：使用网络理论评估复杂系统的可持续性和弹性。

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摘要

This research evaluates sustainability and resilience of integrated human/built/natural systems, or complex Earth systems, using the network theory and approach by case studies of the U.S. book retail market and the 2002 U.S. economy.;First, based on the "small-world" model of social networks, the environmental impacts of the U.S. book retail market is simulated using an agent-based modeling technique from a bottom-up perspective. The results show that the future book retail market is primarily dominated by the development of internet penetration. Energy use and carbon dioxide emissions for delivery can be reduced as much as 1.43 million cubic meters and 3.33 million tons, respectively, in the conservative scenario. More broadly, the framework and method used in this case can be easily adapted for studying environmental sustainability of other complex systems in which human components are the primary driver of environmental consequences.;Second, the resilience of 2002 U.S. economy is studied by mapping the economic system as an economic input-output (EIO) network. Statistical analysis shows that the distributions of degree of nodes and weight of nodes (or links) of the EIO network generally follow a power law with fat tails in the logarithmic scale. The general power-law distribution suggests the economy's resilience against random failures occurring in nodes and links, while the fat tails in the logarithmic scale represent highly connected clusters consisting of strong nodes which enhance the EIO network's resilience against intentional attacks. More analysis on the network identifies critical sectors for the overall resilience of the economy, such as "wholesale trade", "air transportation", "general state and local government services", or "motor vehicle parts manufacturing". On the other hand, other sectors play less important roles in terms of resilience, such as "veterinary services", "dental laboratories", "logging", or "fishing". Furthermore, the analysis on dependence and similarity between sectors confirms sectors' role in the resilience of the EIO network. Finally, the quantitative tools developed in this research have a wide potential to apply to the evaluation of resilience for systems which contain numerous agents interacting with each other in complex ways.
机译：这项研究通过网络理论和方法，以美国图书零售市场和2002年美国经济的案例研究为基础，评估了集成的人类/建筑/自然系统或复杂地球系统的可持续性和弹性。 “世界”社交网络模型，从下至上的角度使用基于代理的建模技​​术来模拟美国图书零售市场的环境影响。结果表明，未来的图书零售市场主要由互联网渗透的发展所主导。在保守的情况下，可减少的能源使用量和二氧化碳排放量分别减少了143万立方米和333万吨。更广泛地讲，在这种情况下使用的框架和方法可以很容易地用于研究其他复杂系统的环境可持续性，在这些系统中，人为因素是造成环境后果的主要驱动力。第二，通过绘制经济结构图来研究2002年美国经济的弹性。系统作为经济投入产出（EIO）网络。统计分析表明，EIO网络的节点度和节点（或链路）权重的分布通常遵循幂定律，对数刻度上有肥尾。一般的幂律分布表明，经济具有抵御节点和链接中发生随机故障的能力，而对数刻度上的粗尾代表了由强节点组成的高度连接的集群，这些节点增强了EIO网络抵御故意攻击的能力。在网络上进行的更多分析确定了整体经济抵御能力的关键部门，例如“批发贸易”，“航空运输”，“一般州和地方政府服务”或“汽车零部件制造”。另一方面，其他部门在抵御力方面的作用则不太重要，例如“兽医服务”，“牙科实验室”，“伐木”或“捕鱼”。此外，对部门之间依赖性和相似性的分析证实了部门在EIO网络弹性中的作用。最后，在这项研究中开发的定量工具具有广泛的潜力，可用于评估包含大量以复杂方式彼此交互的代理的系统的弹性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Xu, Ming.;

  • 作者单位

    Arizona State University.;

  • 授予单位 Arizona State University.;
  • 学科 Engineering Environmental.;Engineering System Science.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 142 p.
  • 总页数 142
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 环境污染及其防治;系统科学;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:37:40

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