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A methodology for incorporating fuel price impacts into short-term transit ridership forecasts.

机译:将燃油价格影响纳入短期过境乘车人数预测的方法。

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摘要

Anticipating changes to public transportation ridership demand is important to planning for and meeting service goals and maintaining system viability. These changes may occur in the short- or long-term; extensive academic work has focused on bettering long-term forecasting procedures while improvements to short-term forecasting techniques have not received significant academic attention. This dissertation combines traditional forecasting approaches with multivariate regression to develop a transferable short-term public transportation ridership forecasting model that incorporates fuel price as a prediction parameter. The research herein addresses 254 US transit systems from bus, light rail, heavy rail, and commuter rail modes, and uses complementary methods to account for seasonal and non-seasonal ridership fluctuations. Models were built and calibrated using monthly data from 2002 to 2007 and validated using a six-month dataset from early 2008. Using variable transformations, classical data decomposition techniques, multivariate regression, and a variety of forecasting model validation measures, this work establishes a benchmark for future research into transferable transit ridership forecasting model improvements that may aid public transportation system planners in an era when, due to fuel price concerns, global warming and green initiatives, and other impetuses, transit use is seeing a resurgence in popularity.
机译:预期公共交通出行需求的变化对于规划和实现服务目标以及维持系统可行性至关重要。这些变化可能会在短期或长期内发生;广泛的学术工作集中在改善长期预报程序上,而对短期预报技术的改进并未引起学术界的广泛关注。本文将传统的预测方法与多元回归相结合,建立了以燃油价格为预测参数的可转移的短期公交出行量预测模型。本文的研究针对254种来自公交,轻轨,重轨和通勤铁路模式的美国公交系统,并使用补充方法解决季节性和非季节性的乘车波动。使用2002年至2007年的月度数据构建和校准模型,并使用2008年初的6个月数据集进行验证。使用变量转换,经典数据分解技术,多元回归和各种预测模型验证措施,该工作建立了基准在将来对可转让的过境旅客预测模型进行改进的研究中,这可能会在一个时代由于燃油价格问题,全球变暖和绿色倡议以及其他推动因素而在公交使用重新流行的时代为公共交通系统规划者提供帮助。

著录项

  • 作者

    Haire, Ashley Raye.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Texas at Austin.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Texas at Austin.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Transportation.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 312 p.
  • 总页数 312
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;综合运输;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:37:36

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