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Interannual Variability Analysis of Utility-Scale Solar Photovoltaic and Wind Power Resources in Arizona and New Mexico

机译：亚利桑那州和新墨西哥州公用事业规模太阳能光伏和风能资源的年际变化分析

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摘要

Interannual variability (IAV) of wind and solar resources impacts multi-million-dollar power system decisions related to operations, planning, and investments. Decisions pertaining to power systems are usually made based on a limited number of years where the consequences of interannual variability are often neglected or reduced. As the electric sector transitions to a renewable energy future, larger shares of wind and solar will introduce more variability to the operation of the power system. Consequently, we use the National Radiation Database (1998--2015) as well as the WIND Toolkit (2007--2013) to create wind and solar photovoltaic power time series using NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM), and study the interannual variability of wind and solar resources in Arizona and New Mexico. We define IAV as half of the ratio between the range of capacity factor (CF) and the long-term mean in the time frame of interest, expressed as a percentage. Results show a +/-3--4% IAV of annual solar CF and +/-7--8% IAV of annual wind CF. IAV of annual wind CF is significantly impacted by geographical location, with larger IAV values in the Great Plains and southern Rocky Mountains. IAV of seasonal wind CF is calculated on the order of +/-11--26%, whereas IAV of seasonal solar CF was found to range from +/-6% to +/-16%. In both cases, IAV of wind and solar seasonal CF showed lower IAV values in summer and larger in winter. Extreme ramping events in aggregated wind and solar power time series are also studied. It is shown that extreme events can increase as much as 40% from year to year. Impacts on generation, transmission, and storage investments as well as impacts on operating reserves, transmission congestion, maintenance and seasonal storage scheduling are discussed.
机译：风能和太阳能的年际可变性（IAV）影响与运营，规划和投资相关的数百万美元的电力系统决策。有关电力系统的决策通常是基于有限的年份做出的，在这些年份中，年际可变性的后果通常被忽略或减少。随着电力部门过渡到可再生能源的未来，风能和太阳能所占的比重将给电力系统的运行带来更多变化。因此，我们使用国家辐射数据库（1998--2015）和WIND工具包（2007--2013）使用NREL的系统顾问模型（SAM）创建风能和太阳能光伏发电时间序列，并研究亚利桑那州和新墨西哥州的风能和太阳能资源。我们将IAV定义为容量因子（CF）的范围与感兴趣的时间范围内的长期平均值之比的一半，以百分比表示。结果表明，年太阳CF的IAV为+/- 3--4％，年风CF为+/- 7--8％IAV。年风CF的IAV受地理位置的影响很大，大平原和落基山脉南部的IAV值较大。计算得出的季节性风CF的IAV为+/- 11--26％的数量级，而发现季节性CF的IAV的范围为+/- 6％至+/- 16％。在这两种情况下，风和日照CF的IAV在夏季均显示较低的IAV值，而在冬季则显示较大。还研究了风能和太阳能总时间序列中的极端斜坡事件。结果表明，极端事件每年可能增加40％。讨论了对发电，输电和存储投资的影响以及对运营储备，输电拥塞，维护和季节性存储调度的影响。

著录项

  • 作者

    Losada Carreño, Ignacio.;

  • 作者单位

    Northern Arizona University.;

  • 授予单位 Northern Arizona University.;
  • 学科 Energy.
  • 学位 M.S.
  • 年度 2018
  • 页码 139 p.
  • 总页数 139
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 新闻学、新闻事业;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:52:54

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