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Vulnerability Model of Residential Structures Subject to Hurricane Induced Wind, Surge and Inundation

机译：遭受飓风，潮涌和淹没影响的住宅结构的脆弱性模型

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摘要

Annualized hurricane-related losses to the built environment in the United States are in the billions of dollars. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in 2010 39% of the United States population, or 123.3 million inhabitants, lived in a coastal county. This population is expected to increase by 8% from 2010 to 2020. The majority of these people live in buildings prone to hurricanes. The hurricanes can result in wind damage (due to high wind and/or wind-driven rain infiltration) and water damage (due to storm surge and waves or freshwater flooding) to the building and its contents, which are typically insured by separate entities. In addition to the possible damages, a hurricane can cause the occupants to flee from their homes and not return immediately, and incur time related expenses (a.k.a additional living expenses).;Catastrophe models estimate these different types of damage and expenses for entire population of buildings. Emergency managers and the insurance industry and regulators are the main users of these models. The Florida Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM) is an example of such a catastrophe model: it is a probabilistic model which predicts the hurricane insured losses to residential buildings in the state of Florida. Originally, the FPHLM was restricted to wind and rain hazards. Recently the State of Florida commisioned an enhancement of the FPHLM to expand the scope of the model to storm surge and hurricane-related freshwater flooding. The goal of the new model is to: (1) estimate the potential damage to residential properties from both storm surge and inland flooding; (2) differentiate wind losses from storm surge/flood losses; (3) provide a state-ofthe- art innovative methodology to combine the separate wind and storm surge/flood losses; and, (4) provide assistance to regulators and the insurance and reinsurance industries in the rate-making process.;This dissertation describes the development of the vulnerability component of the FPHLM enhancement project. It incorporates the knowledge gained from a vast pool of studies in the fields of freshwater flooding, storm surge inundation, and tsunami research to develop the different vulnerability components for the enhancement project.;In the event that a structure is subjected to damage from both wind and water hazards, the proper allocation, and subsequent combination, of damage for insurance purposes is challenging because, as in the case of the FPHLM, wind and water vulnerability are often assessed with separate models. The current literature addresses the calculation of the damages from each hurricane hazard including in some cases the combination of these damages. However, many of these methods suffer from some of the following shortcomings: (1) they focus on a specific building type only; (2) they relate damages to a specific hazard intensity without consideration of all acting forces (e.g., inundation depth without taking into account wave action and water velocity from surge-induced damages); (3) they base their results on limited damage data (e.g., most empirical vulnerability models); (4) they limit damages of specific components to a particular hazard (e.g., limiting structural damages to wind only); or, (5) they make assumptions that are not realistic (e.g., the independence of wind-induced and water-induced damages).;To address these shortcomings, as part of the enhancement project, this dissertation presents a method to characterize and quantify storm surge damage states for residential buildings. These damage states are then used in the generation of fragility and vulnerability curves. Next, the dissertation presents a new methodology for calculating the waterinduced damage to the content and the additional living expenses due to storm surge or fresh water inundation. Finally, it describes a methodology for the assessment of multi-hazard vulnerability in which the damage from each hazard (wind and rain, storm surge, and freshwater inundation) is calculated separately. An engineering approach in conjunction with hazard information (intensity, timing) and statistical methods is the basis for the calculation of the combined damage and the assignment of damage causation from each hazard. This dissertation also includes an uncertainty analysis that evaluates the reliability of the outputs of the different components of the FPHLM and the variability of the inputs based on the model assumptions.;The FPHLM development team has access to the exposure and claim data of major private insurance companies and the National Flood Insurance Program for all hurricanes that have impacted the state of Florida since 1975. It also has access to Florida tax appraiser databases that define the existing building inventory. These datasets were used in the development of the surge and flood content damage model as well as the validation and calibration of other components in the FPHLM. The use of these datasets required extensive processing and interpretation. This dissertation discusses the challenges encountered and the solutions proposed in this process.
机译：在美国，与飓风相关的年化损失给建筑环境造成的损失高达数十亿美元。根据国家海洋与大气管理局的数据，2010年，美国39％的人口（1.233亿居民）居住在沿海县。从2010年到2020年，该人口预计将增长8％。这些人中的大多数生活在容易遭受飓风袭击的建筑物中。飓风可能会对建筑物及其所含物造成风灾（由于强风和/或风力驱动的雨水渗透）和水灾（由于风暴潮和海浪或淡水洪水），通常由单独的实体进行保险。除了可能造成的损失外，飓风还会使居住者逃离家园而不立即返回，并招致与时间有关的费用（又称额外的生活费用）。巨灾模型估计了这些不同类型的损失和整个人口的支出建筑物。应急经理以及保险业和监管者是这些模型的主要用户。佛罗里达飓风损失模型（FPHLM）就是这种灾难模型的一个例子：它是一种概率模型，可以预测飓风对佛罗里达州居民住宅造成的保险损失。 FPHLM最初仅限于风雨危害。最近，佛罗里达州开始对FPHLM进行增强，以将模型的范围扩展到风暴潮和飓风相关的淡水洪水。新模型的目标是：（1）估计风暴潮和内陆洪水对住宅财产的潜在损害； （2）将风的损失与风暴潮/洪水的损失区分开来； （3）提供最先进的创新方法，以结合单独的风浪风暴潮/洪水损失； （4）在利率制定过程中为监管机构以及保险和再保险行业提供帮助。;本论文描述了FPHLM增强项目的漏洞组件的开发。它结合了从淡水洪水，风暴潮淹没和海啸研究等领域的大量研究中获得的知识，以开发用于增强项目的不同脆弱性组件;如果结构受到两种风的破坏对于水和水的危害，为保险目的对损害进行适当的分配和随后的组合是具有挑战性的，因为就FPHLM而言，风和水的脆弱性通常是通过单独的模型进行评估的。当前文献讨论了每种飓风危害造成的损害的计算，在某些情况下还包括这些损害的组合。但是，这些方法中的许多方法都存在以下缺点：（1）它们仅针对特定的建筑物类型； （2）他们将损害与特定的危害强度联系在一起，而不考虑所有作用力（例如，淹没深度不考虑浪涌作用和浪涌引起的损害引起的水流速度）; （3）他们的结果基于有限的损害数据（例如，大多数经验脆弱性模型）； （4）它们将特定组件的损坏限制为特定的危害（例如，仅将结构损坏限制为风）； （5）他们做出的假设是不切实际的（例如，风和水造成的损害的独立性）。为了解决这些缺点，作为改进项目的一部分，本论文提出了一种表征和量化的方法住宅建筑物的风暴潮破坏状态。然后将这些损坏状态用于脆弱性和易损性曲线的生成。接下来，本文提出了一种新的方法来计算水引起的内容物破坏以及风暴潮或淡水淹没带来的额外生活费用。最后，它描述了一种评估多灾种脆弱性的方法，其中分别计算了每种危害（风雨，暴风雨和淡水淹没）造成的破坏。结合危害信息（强度）的工程方法，时间）和统计方法是计算组合损失以及每种危害造成的损害原因分配的基础。本文还包括不确定性分析，该不确定性分析基于模型假设来评估FPHLM不同组件的输出的可靠性和输入的可变性。FPHLM开发团队可以访问主要私人保险的风险敞口和索赔数据公司和国家洪水保险计划（National Flood Insurance Program），以应对自1975年以来影响佛罗里达州的所有飓风。它还可以访问定义现有建筑物清单的佛罗里达州税务评估数据库。这些数据集用于涌浪和洪水含量破坏模型的开发以及FPHLM中其他组件的验证和校准。这些数据集的使用需要大量的处理和解释。本文讨论了这一过程中遇到的挑战和提出的解决方案。

著录项

  • 作者

    Baradaranshoraka, Mohammad.;

  • 作者单位

    Florida Institute of Technology.;

  • 授予单位 Florida Institute of Technology.;
  • 学科 Civil engineering.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2017
  • 页码 323 p.
  • 总页数 323
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 农学（农艺学）;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:38:47

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