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首页> 外文期刊>American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics >Modelling and Forecasting of Area, Production, Yield and Total Seeds of Rice and Wheat in SAARC Countries and the World towards Food Security
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Modelling and Forecasting of Area, Production, Yield and Total Seeds of Rice and Wheat in SAARC Countries and the World towards Food Security

机译：南盟国家和世界粮食安全大米和小麦的面积，产量，产量和总种子的建模和预测

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In this paper, under the background of overall food security situation in the SAARC countries, attempts have been made to analyse the production behaviour along with the total seeds of two major food crops rice and wheat. This will help to draw up strategies and programmes for regional cooperation in ensuring food security and reducing hunger and malnutrition in the region. Forecasting of area, production, yield and total seed production will not only help to solve the food security problem but also seed security in these SAARC countries in future. In addition to descriptive statistics, the Box – Jenkins ARIMA modelling technique has been used to analyse the information from 1961 through 2010. The forecast shows that rice and wheat production for the year 2020 would be about 794 and 777 million tons respectively in the world. In-spite of increase in production the study reveals that the yield of rice and wheat in world would be 4.35 t/ha and 3.4 t/ ha in 2020 but the yield of these two crops in SAARC countries, barring one country in each, will remain far below the world projection. Thus, under the given remote possibility of horizontal expansion, the study emphasises the need for quantum jump in the per hectare yield of these two crops for this region. The study also advocates that good quality of seeds in good amount be made available to the farmers, otherwise the whole food security of this part of the Globe would be under tremendous risk.
机译：本文以南盟国家整体粮食安全形势为背景，尝试分析水稻和小麦这两种主要粮食作物的生产行为以及总种子。这将有助于拟订区域合作的战略和计划，以确保该区域的粮食安全和减少饥饿和营养不良。对面积，产量，单产和总种子产量的预测不仅将有助于解决粮食安全问题，而且还将有助于今后在这些南盟国家中的种子安全。除描述性统计数据外，还使用Box – Jenkins ARIMA建模技术分析了1961年至2010年的信息。预测显示，到2020年，世界大米和小麦产量分别约为794吨和7.77亿吨。尽管产量增加，但研究表明，世界大米和小麦的产量在2020年将分别为4.35吨/公顷和3.4吨/公顷，但南盟国家的这两种作物的产量（除非每个国家一个）仍远低于世界预测。因此，在给定的水平扩展可能性很小的情况下，该研究强调了该地区这两种农作物每公顷单产的跳跃。该研究还主张向农民提供高质量的优质种子，否则地球这部分地区的整个粮食安全将面临巨大风险。

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