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Testing instantaneous causality in presence of nonconstant unconditional covariance

机译:在存在非恒定无条件协方差的情况下测试瞬时因果关系

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摘要

The problem of testing instantaneous causality in the important case where the unconditional covariance is time-varying is considered. It is underlined that the standard test does not control the Type I errors, while the tests with White (Ref. 1) and heteroscedastic autocorrelation consistent (HAC) corrections can suffer from a severe loss of power when the covariance is not constant. It is found that the Wald tests based on the assumption of constant unconditional covariance may have no power in this nonstandard framework. Therefore, in this article a modified test based on a bootstrap procedure is proposed. The relevance of the modified test is illustrated through a simulation study. The tests considered in this article are also compared by investigating the instantaneous causality relations between U.S. macroeconomic variables. It is shown that the tests based on the stationary assumption are outperformed by the bootstrap test. The outcomes obtained from macroeconomic datasets suggest that the classical Wald tests may deliver results which are quite different from the bootstrap test. (53 refs.)
机译:考虑了在无条件协方差随时间变化的重要情况下测试瞬时因果关系的问题。要强调的是,标准测试不能控制I型错误,而当协方差不恒定时,使用怀特(Ref.1)和异方差自相关一致(HAC)校正的测试可能会严重丧失功效。发现基于恒定无条件协方差假设的Wald检验在此非标准框架中可能没有任何作用。因此,在本文中,提出了一种基于引导程序的改进测试。通过仿真研究说明了修改后的测试的相关性。还通过研究美国宏观经济变量之间的瞬时因果关系来比较本文考虑的检验。结果表明,基于固定假设的测试优于自举测试。从宏观经济数据集获得的结果表明,经典的Wald检验可能会提供与自举检验完全不同的结果。 (53篇)

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