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Using historical data for Bayesian sample size determination

机译:使用历史数据确定贝叶斯样本量

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摘要

To suggest a procedure for building up a design prior based on available historical data, that is, results from previous similar experiments, in Bayesian sample size determination. The authors consider the sample size determination (SSD) problem, which is a basic yet extremely important aspect of experimental design. Specifically, they deal with the Bayesian approach to SSD, which gives researchers the possibility of taking into account preexperimental information and uncertainty on unknown parameters. In the design stage, this fact offers the advantage of removing or mitigating typical drawbacks of classical methods, which might lead to serious miscalculation of the sample size. In this context, the leading idea is to choose the minimal sample size that guarantees a probabilistic control on the performance of quantities that are derived from the posterior distribution and used for inference on parameters of interest. The authorsare concerned with the use of historical data, Le., observations from previous similar studies for SSD. They illustrate how the class of power priors can be truthfully employed to deal with lack of homogeneity between historical data and observations of the upcoming experiment.
机译:在贝叶斯样本量确定中,建议基于可用历史数据(即先前类似实验的结果)建立先验设计的程序。作者考虑了样本大小确定(SSD)问题,这是实验设计的基本但极其重要的方面。具体来说,他们使用贝叶斯方法处理SSD,这使研究人员可以考虑实验前的信息和未知参数的不确定性。在设计阶段,这一事实提供了消除或减轻传统方法的典型缺陷的优势,这些缺陷可能导致严重错误地计算样本量。在这种情况下,主要思想是选择最小的样本量,以保证对从后验分布推导并用于推断感兴趣参数的量的性能进行概率控制。作者关注历史数据的使用,例如,以前关于SSD的类似研究的观察结果。它们说明了如何正确使用先验功率类别来处理历史数据和即将进行的实验观察之间缺乏同质性的问题。

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