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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Groundwater-level anomalies associated with a hypothetical preslip prior to the anticipated Tokai earthquake: Detectability using the groundwater observation network of the geological survey of Japan, AIST
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Groundwater-level anomalies associated with a hypothetical preslip prior to the anticipated Tokai earthquake: Detectability using the groundwater observation network of the geological survey of Japan, AIST

机译:预计的东海地震前与假想滑动有关的地下水位异常:使用日本地质调查局AIST的地下水观测网络进行可探测性

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摘要

We infer the groundwater-level anomalies associated with a hypothetical preslip prior to the anticipated M 8 Tokai earthquake, and evaluate the detectability of the anomalies using data from seven groundwater wells. We evaluate the detectability of the anomalies under the following assumptions: (1) an Mw 5.5-6.5 aseismic preslip event occurs at the plate boundary in and around the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake; (2) the total amount of the strain step at each observation associated with the preslip can be calculated by tensile and shear faulting based on the dislocation model; (3) a normalized strain history associated with the preslip is defined from the results of numerical simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction laws; and (4) the groundwater-level anomaly prior to the earthquake is proportional to the estimated history of the strain change associated with the preslip. We investigate the detection time of the anomaly at seven wells given an Mw 5.5, 6.0, or 6.5 aseismic preslip at one of the 272 grid points in and around the area of the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake. As a result, over the time interval between 1 and 48 hours prior to the hypothetical Tokai earthquake, we are able to detect at each of the seven wells a hypothetical Mw 6.5 preslip at 10-86 of the 272 grid points, an Mw 6 preslip at 0-19 grid points, and an Mw 5.5 preslip at 0-5 grid points.
机译:我们在预期的东海M 8地震之前推断与假设的前滑有关的地下水位异常,并使用来自七个地下水井的数据评估异常的可探测性。我们根据以下假设评估异常的可探测性:(1)在东海地震假想震源区及其周围的板块边界发生5.5-6.5 Mw抗震前滑事件; (2)可以根据位错模型通过拉伸和剪切断层计算出与预滑有关的每次观测的应变阶跃总量; (3)根据基于速率和状态的摩擦定律的数值模拟结果,定义了与预滑有关的归一化应变历史; (4)地震前的地下水位异常与估计的与滑移有关的应变变化历史成正比。我们调查了在Tokai地震假想震源区及其周围地区的272个网格点之一处给定的5.5、6.0或6.5 Mw抗震前滑动的7口井的异常检测时间。结果,在假设的东海地震之前的1到48小时之间的时间间隔内,我们能够在七个井中的每口井中检测到272个网格点中10-86处的假设Mw 6.5预滑动,即Mw 6预滑动在0-19格点处,以及Mw 5.5预滑在0-5格点处。

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