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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Conditional probability approach of the assessment of tsunami potential: Application in three tsunamigenic regions of the Pacific Ocean
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Conditional probability approach of the assessment of tsunami potential: Application in three tsunamigenic regions of the Pacific Ocean

机译：评估海啸潜力的条件概率方法：在太平洋三个海啸成因地区的应用

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摘要

We develop stochastic approaches to determine the potential for tsunami generation from earthquakes by combining two interrelated time series, one for the earthquake events, and another for the tsunami events. Conditional probabilities for the occurrence of tsunamis as a function of time are calculated by assuming that the inter-arrival times of the past events are lognormally distributed and by taking into account the time of occurrence of the last event in the time series. An alternative approach is based on the total probability theorem. Then, the probability for the tsunami occurrence equals the product of the ratio, r (= tsunami generating earthquakes/total number of earthquakes) by the conditional probability for the occurrence of the next earthquake in the zone. The probabilities obtained by the total probability theorem are bounded upwards by the ratio r and, therefore, they are not comparable with the conditional probabilities. The two methods were successfully tested in three characteristic seismic zones of the Pacific Ocean: South America, Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan. For time intervals of about 20 years and over the probabilities exceed 0.50 in the three zones. It has been found that the results depend on the approach applied. In fact, the conditional probabilities of tsunami occurrence in Japan are slightly higher than in the South America region and in Kuril-Kamchatka they are clearly lower than in South America. Probabilities calculated by the total probability theorem are systematically higher in South America than in Japan while in Kuril-Kamchatka they are significantly lower than in Japan. The stochastic techniques tested in this paper are promising for the tsunami potential assessment in other tsunamigenic regions of the world.
机译：通过结合两个相互关联的时间序列，一个用于地震事件，另一个用于海啸事件，我们开发了随机方法来确定地震产生海啸的可能性。通过假定过去事件的到达间隔时间是对数正态分布并考虑时间序列中最后一个事件的发生时间，来计算海啸发生的时间概率随时间变化的函数。一种替代方法是基于总概率定理。然后，发生海啸的概率等于该比率r（=发生海啸的地震/地震总数）乘以该区域内发生下一次地震的条件概率的乘积。通过总概率定理获得的概率由比率r向上限制，因此，它们与条件概率不具有可比性。在太平洋的三个特征地震带：南美，千岛-堪察加半岛和日本，成功地测试了这两种方法。对于大约20年的时间间隔，在三个区域中，概率超过0.50。已经发现结果取决于所采用的方法。实际上，日本发生海啸的条件概率略高于南美地区，而千岛-堪察加半岛则明显低于南美。由总概率定理计算出的概率在南美总体上高于日本，而在千岛—堪察加半岛则明显低于日本。本文测试的随机技术有望用于世界其他海啸发生地区的海啸潜力评估。

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