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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Tsunami Hazard Posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and Southern New Hebrides Subduction Margins: An Assessment Based on Plate Boundary Kinematics, Interseismic Coupling, and Historical Seismicity
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Tsunami Hazard Posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and Southern New Hebrides Subduction Margins: An Assessment Based on Plate Boundary Kinematics, Interseismic Coupling, and Historical Seismicity

机译：克马代克和南部新赫布里底群岛俯冲带对新西兰造成的海啸危险：基于板块边界运动学，间震耦合和历史地震的评估

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摘要

We assess the tsunami hazard posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and southern New Hebrides subduction margins. Neither of these subduction zones has produced tsunami large enough to cause significant damage in New Zealand over the past 150 years of well-recorded history. However, as this time frame is short compared to the recurrence interval for major tsunamigenic earthquakes on many of the Earth's subduction zones, it should not be assumed that what has been observed so far is representative of the long term. For each of these two subduction zones we present plate kinematic and fault-locking results from block modelling of earthquake slip vector data and GPS velocities. The results are used to estimate the current rates of strain accumulation on the plate interfaces where large tsunamigenic earthquakes typically occur. We also review data on the larger historical earthquakes that have occurred on these margins, as well as the Global CMT catalogue of events since 1976. Using this information we have developed a set of scenarios for large earthquakes which have been used as initial conditions for the COMCOT tsunami code to estimate the subsequent tsunami propagation in the southwest Pacific, and from these the potential impact on New Zealand has been evaluated. Our results demonstrate that there is a significant threat posed to the Northland and Coromandel regions of New Zealand should a large earthquake (M _w ?8.5) occur on the southern or middle regions of the Kermadec Trench, and that a similarly large earthquake on the southern New Hebrides Trench has the potential to strongly impact on the far northern parts of New Zealand close to the southern end of the submarine Three Kings Ridge. We propose logic trees for the magnitude-frequency parameters of large earthquakes originating on each trench, which are intended to form the basis for future probabilistic studies.
机译：我们评估了Kermadec和南部新赫布里底俯冲带对新西兰造成的海啸危害。在过去的150年历史中，这两个俯冲带均未产生足以在新西兰造成重大破坏的海啸。但是，由于与许多俯冲带发生重大海啸地震的复发间隔相比，该时间段短，因此不应假定到目前为止所观察到的结果可长期代表。对于这两个俯冲带，我们给出了地震滑动矢量数据和GPS速度块模拟的板块运动学和断层锁定结果。该结果用于估计通常发生大海啸地震的板块界面上的应变累积速率。我们还回顾了在这些边缘发生的较大的历史地震的数据，以及1976年以来的全球CMT事件目录。利用这些信息，我们开发了一系列大地震的场景，这些场景被用作地震的初始条件。 COMCOT海啸代码可估算随后海啸在西南太平洋的传播，并据此评估了对新西兰的潜在影响。我们的结果表明，如果在Kermadec海沟的南部或中部地区发生大地震（M _w？8.5），则对新西兰的北国和科罗曼德地区将构成重大威胁，而在南部将发生类似的大地震新赫布里底海沟可能会对靠近海底三王岭南端的新西兰遥远北部产生强烈影响。我们针对源自每个沟槽的大地震的幅度-频率参数提出了逻辑树，旨在为将来的概率研究奠定基础。

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