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Long-range Earthquake Forecasting with Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale

机译：根据规模对每个地震进行前兆的远程地震预报

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Scaling relations previously derived from examples of the precursory scale increase before major earthquakes show that the precursor is a long-term predictor of the time, magnitude, and location of the major earthquake. These relations are here taken as the basis of a stochastic forecasting model in which every earthquake is regarded as a precursor. The problem of identifying those earthquakes that are actually precursory is thus set aside, at the cost of limiting the strength of the resulting forecast. The contribution of an individual earthquake to the future distribution of hazard in time, magnitude and location is on a scale determined, through the scaling relations, by its magnitude. Provision is made for a contribution to be affected by other earthquakes close in time and location, e.g., an aftershock may be given low weight. Using the New Zealand catalogue, the model has been fitted to the forecasting of shallow earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5.75 over the period 1965-2000. It fits the data much better than a baseline Poisson model with a location distribution based on proximity to the epicenters of past earthquakes. Further, the model has been applied, with unchanged parameters, to the California region over the period 1975-2001. There also, it performs much better than the baseline model fitted to the same region over the period 1951-1974; the likelihood ratio is 1015 in favor of the present model. These results lend credence to the precursory scale increase phenomenon, and show that the scaling relations are pervasive in earthquake catalogues. The forecasting model provides a new baseline model against which future refinements, and other proposed models, can be tested. It may also prove to be useful in practice. Its applicability to other regions has still to be established.
机译：以前从大地震之前先兆规模增加的例子得出的比例关系表明，先兆是大地震的时间，震级和位置的长期预测器。这些关系在此被用作随机预测模型的基础，在该模型中，每次地震都被视为先兆。因此，确定那些实际上是前兆地震的问题就被搁置了，其代价是限制了所得预报的强度。单个地震对灾害在时间，震级和位置的未来分布的贡献取决于震级与震级的比例关系。规定了地震在时间和地点附近都会受到其他地震的影响，例如余震的权重可能较低。使用新西兰目录，该模型已用于预测1965-2000年期间5.75级以上的浅层地震。它比基于位置泊松基于过去地震震中的位置分布的基线泊松模型拟合数据要好得多。此外，该模型已在1975-2001年期间以不变的参数应用于加利福尼亚地区。此外，它的性能要比1951-1974年间适用于同一地区的基线模型好得多;该模型的似然比为1015。这些结果证明了前兆尺度增大现象，并且表明尺度关系在地震目录中无处不在。预测模型提供了新的基线模型，可以根据该基线模型测试将来的改进和其他提议的模型。在实践中它也可能会有用。它在其他地区的适用性还有待确定。

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