WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected 37 million bushels higher this month with higher projected imports and lower expected domestic use and exports. Imports are raised 10 million bushels reflecting the strong pace to date. Food use is projected 25 million bushels lower based on the latest mill grind data from the U.S. Bureau of Census. High extraction rates for 2008-crop wheat have reduced the amount of grain needed to produce flour and lower per capita consumption is reducing demand for flour Seed use is lowered 2 million bushels reflecting lower expected 2009-crop acreage. Exports are projected 20 million bushels lower as increased exports by major competitors limit opportunities for U.S. wheat. Lower projected exports of hard red winter, hard red spring, and durum wheats are only partly offset by an increase for white wheat. The projected season-average farm price is unchanged at 6.70 dollar to 6.90 dollar per bushel. COARSE GRAINS: U.S. corn ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected 50 million bushels lower this month as higher ethanol use more than offsets a reduction in exports. Corn use for ethanol is projected 100 million bushels higher on indications of improving blender incentives and higher ethanol use. Blender margins have become increasingly favorable since late February as gasoline prices have risen relative to those for ethanol. A continuing recovery in weekly production of gasoline blends with ethanol is also supportive of ethanol demand as are the latest dataon ethanol production, imports, and stocks which indicate record use in December. Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower on sales and shipments to date, and pressure from increased foreign supplies of corn and wheat. Other 2008/09 feed grainbalance sheet changes include a 5-million-bushel reduction in projected barley exports and 5-million-bushel increases in both projected imports and feed and residual use for oats. RICE: No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2008/09 rice supply and use balance. Domestic and residual use is unchanged from a month ago; however, all rice exports for 2008/09 are lowered 4 million cwt to 94 million. Rough and combined milled and brown exports (on a rough-equivalent basis) are each lowered 2.0 million cwt. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain export projections are each lowered 2 million cwt to 72 million and 22 million, respectively. All rice ending stocks are projected at 30.2 million cwt, 4 million above last month, but less than 1million above 2007/08. OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected at 185 million bushels, down 25 million as increased soybean exports are only partly offset by lower crush. Soybean exports are raised 35 million bushels to 1.185 billion reflecting record sales to China and reduced export competition from Argentina. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels to 1.640 billion because of continued weak domestic soybean meal demand and poor crush margins. Despite lower production, soybean oil stocks are projected higher due to a sharp reduction in domestic use resulting from lower soybean oil-based biodiesel production. Soybean oil used for biodiesel is reduced 0.7 billion pounds to 2.2 billion as biodiesel producers face poor margins, reduced export prospects, and strong competition from other feedstocks. SUGAR: Projected 2008/09 U.S. sugar supply is decreased 85,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to reduced production. Processor indications of higher storage losses and lower rates of sugar extraction reduce beet sugar production 25,000 tons. Florida cane sugar is reduced 60,000 tons based on lower sugarcane production. Sugar use is unchanged. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production for 2009 is forecast lower this month as a slight increase in red meat output is more than offset by lower poultry production. The beef production forecast is raised from last month as carcass weights are forecast
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