WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are down 13 million bushels from last month due to increased exports. Projected exports are 15 million bushels above last month because of increased world import demand and the strong pace of exports to date. White wheat exports increase 10 million bushels and SRW exports rise 5 million bushels. Feed and residual use and food use are unchanged but seed use is down 2 million bushels due to smaller-than-expected planting intentions of other spring and durum wheats. The low end of the projected range of 2003/04 wheat prices is up 5 cents and the high end is unchanged, at 3.35 dollar to 3.40 dollar per bushel. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of corn are down 45 million bushels fromlast month due to larger food, seed, and industrial use. Updated data indicate larger-than-expected use of corn for ethanol. No change is projected for corn feed and residual or exports. However, grain sorghum feed and residual is up 10 million bushelsbecause the March 1 stocks report indicated larger-than-expected feed use in the December-March quarter. Sorghum ending stocks are down 10 million bushels from last month. RICE: Projected U.S. imports for 2003/04 are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 14.0 million cwt based on a slower-than-expected import pace to date. Domestic and residual use is lowered 3 million cwt to 119 million cwt. Exports are raised 3 million cwt to 99 million cwt based on a higher-than-expected export pace to date. Exports of long-grain rice have been strong to markets in Latin America and Mexico. Exports of rough rice are projected at 40 million cwt, 2 million cwt above last month, while exports of milled/brown rice are projected at 59 million cwt (rough-rice basis), 1 million cwtabove last month. Exports of long-grain rice are projected at 79 million cwt, 3 million cwt above last month, while combined medium- and short-grain rice exports are projected at 20 million cwt, unchanged from a month ago. Ending stocks are projected at21,9 million cwt, 1 million cwt below last month, nearly 5 million cwt below 2002/03, and the lowest stocks since 1980/81. The season-average price range is unchanged at 7.45 dollar to 7.75 dollar per cwt. OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. ending stocks of soybeans are down 10 million bushels from last month as higher exports and crush more than offset lower residual use. Soybean exports for 2003/04 are forecast at 900 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from last month. Lower South American production is expected to increase the competitiveness of U.S soybeans in the second half of the marketing year despite tight supplies and higher prices. U.S. soybean crush is forecast at 1,475 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from last month. The increase reflectshigher-than-expected crush through the second quarter of the marketing year Domestic soybean meal use is increased 150,000 short tons this month to 31.3 million tons, leaving projected use down 3 percent from 2002/03, Domestic production and disappearance of soybean oil are also raised. SUGAR: Projected US. sugar supply for fiscal-year 2003/04 is increased 117,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Production is raised based on processors' production reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency.This and higher imports under re-export programs are partially offset by revised lower beginning stocks, On the use side, sugar exports and domestic sales are increased 80,000 tons while stocks are increased 37,000 tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat and poultry production forecasts for 2004 are little changed from last month, The beef production forecast is lowered fractionally based on first-quarter slaughter. The March 26th Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that inventories were higher that previously expected. These inventories, coupled with the high rate of first-quarter hog slaughter, raise the pork production forecast for 2004. The broiler production forecast is increased b
展开▼
机译：小麦：由于出口增加，预计美国2003/04年度期末小麦库存较上月减少1300万蒲式耳。由于世界进口需求增加以及迄今为止强劲的出口步伐，预计出口将比上月高出1500万蒲式耳。白小麦出口增加了1000万蒲式耳，SRW出口增加了500万蒲式耳。饲料和残留用量及粮食用量没有变化，但种子用量下降了200万蒲式耳，原因是其他春小麦和硬质小麦的播种意向低于预期。 2003/04年度小麦价格预期范围的低端上涨了5美分，高端没有变化，报每蒲式耳3.35美元至3.40美元。粗粮：由于粮食，种子和工业用途的增加，预计美国2003/04年度期末玉米库存较上月减少4500万蒲式耳。最新数据表明，玉米乙醇的使用量超出预期。预计玉米饲料和残渣或出口量不会变化。但是，谷物高粱饲料和残渣增加了1000万蒲式耳，因为3月1日的库存报告显示12月至3月季度的饲料用量高于预期。高粱期末库存较上月减少1000万蒲式耳。稻米：基于迄今为止的进口速度低于预期，预计2003/04年美国进口量下降了100万英担，至1400万英担。国内和剩余用量降低了300万英担，至1.19亿英担。由于迄今为止的出口速度高于预期，出口量增加了300万英担，至9900万英担。长粒大米对拉丁美洲和墨西哥的市场出口强劲。粗米出口预计为4000万英担，比上月增加200万英担，而精米/糙米出口预计为5900万英担（以大米为基础），高于上月100万英担。长粒大米的出口量预计为7900万英担，比上月增加300万英担，而中粒和短粒大米的出口量合计为2000万英担，与一个月前持平。期末存货预计为2190万英担，比上月减少100万英担，比2002/03年低近500万英担，是1980/81年以来最低的。季平均价格范围维持在每英担7.45美元至7.75美元。油籽：美国大豆期末库存预估较上月减少1000万蒲式耳，原因是出口量增加和压榨量增加足以抵消剩余用量的减少。预计2003/04年度大豆出口量为9亿蒲式耳，比上月增加1000万蒲式耳。尽管供应紧张且价格上涨，但南美较低的产量预计将在销售年度下半年提高美国大豆的竞争力。预计美国大豆压榨量为14.75亿蒲式耳，比上月增加1000万蒲式耳。增长反映出本销售年度第二季度的压榨高于预期，本月国内豆粕用量增加了150000短吨，至3130万吨，与2002/03年度相比，预计用量下降了3％。国内产量和豆油的消失也被提出。糖：预计美国。与上月相比，2003/04财政年度的食糖供应增加了117,000短吨的原始价值。产量是根据农场服务局（Farm Service Agency）编制的加工商产量报告提高的。再出口计划下的此进口量和较高的进口量被修正的较低的期初库存量所抵消;在使用方面，食糖出口和国内销售量增加了80,000吨，而库存量却增加了增加了37,000吨。畜禽，乳制品：2004年红肉和禽肉的产量预测与上月基本没有变化。牛肉产量的预测根据第一季度的屠宰量而有所下调。 3月26日的《生猪和猪季刊》报告指出，库存量高于先前的预期。这些库存，加上第一季度生猪屠宰率高，提高了2004年猪肉产量预测。
展开▼
