WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are down 5 million bushels from last month due to a 25-million-bushel increase in exports that is largely offset by a 20-million-bushel decrease in food use. Exports are raised due to stronger-than-expected sales to date and lower projected exports from Canada and the EU-25. Lower food use is based on the recent mill grind estimates released by the Bureau of the Census. Hard red spring wheat ending stocks are 8 million bushels less than last month;hard red winter ending stocks are down 7 million bushels; but both white wheat and durum ending stocks are up 5 million bushels. The projected price range is 3.35 to 3.45 dollar per bushel, up 5 cents on the lower end. Projected 2004/05 global wheat production, use, and stocks are up slightly from last month. Global wheat production is raised 1.6 million tons to a record 624 million tons. Larger crops are projected for China (up 1 million tons) and Mexico (up 0.4 million tons) with smaller increases for several other countries. Global consumption is raised fractionally from last month due to higher feed use. Global imports are up slightly from last month due to small increases in numerous countries. China's imports are lowered 0.5 million tons and Ukraine's imports are down 0.3 million tons from last month. In addition to larger projected U.S. exports, India's exports increase 0.5 million tons and Turkey's rise 0.3 million tons. Exports from Canada and the EU-25 are each lowered 0.5 million tons. Smaller reductions are projected for exports from Kazakhstan, Brazil, Romania, Uruguay, and Croatia. Global ending stocks are up fractionally from last month's projection with the largest changes occurring in Argentina and the EU-25 (each up 0.5 million tons) and India (down 0.5 million tons). Smaller changes in stocks are projected in many other countries. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2004/05 ending stocks of corn are up 45 million bushels from last month due to smaller exports. Exports are down 50 million bushels due to increased competition from Argentina and South Africa and smaller global imports. A 5-million-bushel drop in U.S. corn imports is partially offsetting. Domestic use for 2004/05 is unchanged from last month. Despite the increase in stocks, the projected price range of corn is raised 10 cents on both ends to 1.95 to 2.15 dollar per bushel. Projected prices are raised because the prices received by farmers (reported by MASS) have remained well above spot prices. This suggests that farmers forward contracted a larger-than-expected portion of the crop when prices were much higher. Due to a slower-than-expected pace of imports, projected U.S. barley imports are reduced 5 million bushels, resulting in a 5-million-bushel decline in ending stocks.Projected barley prices are unchanged. Projected oat prices are 1.40 to 1.50 dollar per bushel, 5 cents higher than last month due to stronger-than-expected prices to date. No changes are made in sorghum supply and use. Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply, use, and stocks projections are up from last month. Global production is raised 7.1 million tons to a record 1,004 million tons. Production for 2003/04 is increased 2 million tons. Larger 2004/05 coarse grain crops are projected for India and Argentina(each up 2.1 million tons), China (up 1.7 million tons), South Africa (up 1.4 million tons) and Mexico (up 1.1 million tons) with smaller increases projected for other countries. Brazil's corn crop is 2 million tons lower. Argentina's 2003/04 corn cropis increased 1 million tons. Global 2004/05 consumption of coarse grains is up 2.8 million tons. The largest increases projected are for India and Argentina which offset reduced consumption in a number of countries. Global imports are down 0.8 million tons from last month with small decreases projected for Turkey, Mexico, the United States, China, Columbia, South Africa, and Israel. The largest increases in exports are projected for Argentina (up
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