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首页> 外文期刊>World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates >World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates: Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service
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World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates: Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service

机译：世界农业供求估算：农业市场服务经济研究服务农场服务机构外国农业服务

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WHEAT: No changes are made to projected U.S. 2005/06 all wheat production, imports, domestic use, and exports; leaving ending stocks at 530 million bushels. Relative to last month, Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat exports are up 5 million bushels, while Durum exports are down 5 million. HRW and Hard Red Spring (HRS) domestic use are lowered 3 and 2 million bushels respectively, but Durum domestic use is up 5 million. Ending stocks of HRW fall 2 million bushels to 173 million, 20 million less than the previous year. HRS ending stocks rise 2 million to 121 million bushels, but are 38 million less than the previous year. The projected 2005/06 price range is 3.25 dollar to 3.50 dollar per bushel, down 5 cents on the upper end from last month, compared with 3.40 dollar for 2004/05. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2005/06 U.S. corn stocks rise from last month due to a drop in exports. No changes are made to projected U.S. 2005/06 corn production, imports, or domestic use. Corn exports are down 100 million bushels from last month due primarily to increased corn exports by China and Ukraine. Corn ending stocks are up 100 million bushels to 2,418 million, 307 million higher than the previous year. The projected 2005/06 price range for corn is 1.60 dollar to 2.00 dollar per bushel, unchanged from last month, compared with 2.06 dollar for 2004/05. RICE: Only minor changes are made to the U.S. 2005/06 rice supply and use projections from a month ago. On the supply side, imports are lowered 1 million cwt to 14 million cwt, due to a slower-than-expected import pace early in the marketing year. No changes are made on the use side. As a result, ending stocks are lowered 1 million cwt to 25.2 million cwt, which are down 12.5 million cwt from a year earlier. The season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents per cwt on each end to 7.65 dollar to 7.95 dollar per cwt and compares to 7.33 dollar per cwt in 2004/05. OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 95.1 million tons, up slightly due to increased cottonseedproduction. Soybean exports are reduced 55 million bushels to 1,020 million bushels as competition from South American soybean exports continues to limit U.S. trade prospects, especially to EU-25 and China. U.S. export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) through early December are at the lowest level since 1998. With projected soybean crush unchanged, 2005/06 ending stocks are increased to 405 million bushels. Although soybean crush is unchanged, soybean oil production and ending stocks areraised based on a sharply higher oil extraction rate. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2005/06 is increased 728,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Production is increased 146,000 tons, mainly due to higher beet sugar production, based on processors' reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Imports are increased 590,000 tons, mostly due to higher tariff rate quota (IRQ) imports. Shortfall in filling the IRQ is increased 15,000 tons. Imports of high-tier sugar from Mexico are increased130,000 tons while other non-program imports are increased 25,000 tons. Use is unchanged and ending stocks are increased to 1.4 million tons, or 13.4 percent of use. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2005 and 2006 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. trading partners. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. COTTON: This month's U.S. forecasts for 2005/06 include higher production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is raised 2 percent to a record 23.7 million bales, due mainly to increases for Texas and Georgia. Domestic mill use is unchanged and exports are raised 200,000 bales to a record 16.4 million bales. Ending stocks are raised 6 percent to 6.9 million bales.
机译：小麦：预计美国2005/06年小麦的产量，进口量，国内用途和出口量均未发生变化;最终库存为5.3亿蒲式耳。与上个月相比，硬红冬麦（HRW）小麦出口增加了500万蒲式耳，而杜伦（Durum）出口减少了500万蒲式耳。 HRW和硬红春（HRS）的国内用量分别减少了3和200万蒲式耳，而Durum的国内用量增加了500万。 HRW的期末库存下降200万蒲式耳，至1.73亿蒲式耳，比上年减少2000万蒲式耳。 HRS期末库存增加200万，至1.21亿蒲式耳，但比上年减少3,800万蒲式耳。预计2005/06年度价格范围为每蒲式耳3.25美元至3.50美元，与上月相比，上月高端价格下跌了5美分，而2004/05年度价格为3.40美元。粗粮：由于出口下降，预计2005/06年度美国玉米库存较上月增加。预计美国2005/06年度玉米产量，进口量或国内使用量不会发生变化。玉米出口较上月减少1亿蒲式耳，这主要是由于中国和乌克兰的玉米出口增加。玉米期末库存增加1亿蒲式耳，至24.18亿蒲式耳，比上年增加3.07亿蒲式耳。预计2005/06年度玉米价格范围为每蒲式耳1.60美元至2.00美元，与上月持平，2004/05年度为2.06美元。稻米：美国2005/06年度大米的供应量和使用量与一个月前相比只有很小的变化。在供应方面，由于销售年度初的进口速度低于预期，进口量下降了100万英担，至100万英担。使用方面未做任何更改。结果，期末库存降低了100万英担，至2520万英担，比去年同期减少了1250万英担。季节性平均农场价格每头降低10美分/英担，至7.65美元至7.95美元/英担，与2004/05年度的7.33美元/英担相比。油籽：美国油籽总产量预计为9,510万吨，由于棉籽产量增加而略有增加。由于南美大豆出口的竞争继续限制美国的贸易前景，特别是对EU-25和中国的贸易前景，大豆出口减少了5500万蒲式耳，降至10.2亿蒲式耳。到12月初，美国的出口承诺（出货量加上出色的销售）处于1998年以来的最低水平。由于预计大豆压榨量没有变化，2005/06年度期末库存增加至4.05亿蒲式耳。尽管大豆压榨率没有变化，但基于更高的石油提取率，大豆油的产量和期末库存得以提高。糖：2005/06年度美国糖供应量预计较上月增加728,000短吨。根据农场服务局汇编的加工商报告，产量增加了146,000吨，主要是由于甜菜糖产量提高。进口量增加了59万吨，这主要归功于关税配额（IRQ）进口的增加。填补IRQ的缺口增加了15,000吨。从墨西哥进口的高级糖增加了13万吨，而其他非计划糖则增加了25,000吨。使用量没有变化，期末库存增加到140万吨，占使用量的13.4％。牲畜，家禽和乳制品：注：由于在美国和加拿大发现了疯牛病，对反刍动物和反刍动物产品的贸易禁令期限的不确定性，对2005年和2006年的预测假定了目前的政策延续在美国贸易伙伴之间。随后的预测将反映所有已宣布的更改。棉花：美国本月对2005/06年度的预测包括与上月相比更高的产量，出口量和期末库存。产量提高了2％，达到创纪录的2370万包，主要是得克萨斯州和乔治亚州的产量增加。国内工厂使用量保持不变，出口量增加了20万包，达到创纪录的1640万包。期末库存提高6％，至690万包。

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