WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are down 25 million bushels from last month. Exports are up 25 million bushels due to higher world imports and stronger-than-expected sales of hard bread wheats. Hard red spring wheat exports are 15 million bushels more than last month; hard red winter exports are up 12 million bushels; and white wheat exports are up 5 million bushels. Soft red winter wheat exports are down 5 million bushels and durum exports are 2 million bushels lower than fastmonth. The projected price range is 3.30 dollar to 3.45 dollar per bushel, up 5 cents on the lower end. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of corn are up 50 million bushels from last month due to smaller exports. Exports are down due to increased competition from Argentina and smaller imports by Canada. Domestic use for 2004/05 is unchanged from last month. The projected price range of corn is narrowed 5 cents on each end to 1.85 dollar to 2.05 dollar per bushel. RICE: No changes aremade this month in supply forecasts. U.S. exports for 2004/05 are projected at 105 million cwt, unchanged from last month; however, rough rice exports are lowered 2 million cwt to 30 million cwt while combined milled/brown rice exports are raised 2 million cwt to 75 million cwt. Exports of long-grain rice are projected at 81 million cwt, 1 million cwt above last month. Combined medium- and short-grain rice exports are projected at 24 million cwt, 1 million cwt below last month. Ending stocks are projected at 40.1 million cwt, unchanged from last month but 16.4 million cwt above 2003/04 and the largest stocks since 1986/87. The season-average price range is unchanged at 7.25 dollar to 7.55 dollar per cwt compared to a revised 8.08 dollar per cwt for 2003/04. OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2004/05 are increased 5 million bushels to 440 million bushels this month, the highest since 1985/86. Soybean crush is reduced to 1,655 million bushels, reflecting lower domestic soybean meal demand. Despite reduced soybean crush, soybean oil production is slightly higher this month because of an increase in the oil extraction rate. Soybean exports are unchanged at 1,010 million bushels. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2004/05 is decreased 26,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Cane sugar production is decreased 20,000 tons (mostly Hawaii) and beet sugar production is decreased 6,000 tons, based on processors' production projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Sugar use is unchanged. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2005 assume a continuationof policies currently in place including the announced minimal-risk rule. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. COTTON: This month's U.S. 2004/05 projections include higher disappearance and lower ending stocks. Domestic mill use is raised 100,000 bales to 6.3 million bales, reflecting strong activity to date. Exports are projected at 13.0 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales from last month, based on recent strong sales and higher estimated foreign consumption and imports. Accordingly, ending stocks are reduced to 7.3 million bales, or about 38 percent of total use.
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机译：小麦：预计美国2004/05年度期末小麦库存较上月减少2500万蒲式耳。出口增加了2500万蒲式耳，这是由于世界进口增加以及硬面包小麦的销售强于预期。硬红春小麦出口量比上月增加了1500万蒲式耳。硬红冬季出口增加了1200万蒲式耳;白小麦出口量增加了500万蒲式耳。软红冬麦出口下降了500万蒲式耳，硬粒小麦出口下降了200万蒲式耳。预计价格范围为每蒲式耳3.30美元至3.45美元，低端上涨了5美分。粗粮：由于出口量减少，预计美国2004/05年度期末玉米库存较上月增加5000万蒲式耳。出口下降是由于来自阿根廷的竞争加剧以及加拿大的进口量减少。 2004/05年度的国内使用与上个月相同。玉米的预计价格范围每端收窄5美分，至每蒲式耳1.85美元至2.05美元。稻米：本月供应预测没有变化。美国2004/05年度出口量预计为1.05亿英担，与上月持平;但是，糙米出口量下降了200万英担，至3000万英担，而碾米/糙米的总出口却上升了200万英担，至7500万英担。长粒大米的出口量预计为8100万英担，比上月增加100万英担。中粒和短粒大米的总出口量预计为2400万英担，比上月减少100万英担。期末库存预计为4010万英担，与上月持平，但比2003/04年增加1640万英担，是自1986/87年以来的最大库存。本季度平均价格范围保持不变，为每英担7.25美元至7.55美元，而2003/04年度修正后的价格为每英担8.08美元。油籽：2004/05年度美国大豆期末库存预期增加500万蒲式耳，至本月的4.4亿蒲式耳，为1985/86年以来的最高水平。大豆压榨量减少至16.55亿蒲式耳，反映了国内豆粕需求的下降。尽管大豆压榨量减少，但本月豆油产量略有提高，原因是榨油率提高。大豆出口维持在10.1亿蒲式耳。糖：2004/05年度美国食糖供应量预计较上月减少26,000短吨。根据美国农业服务局（Farm Service Agency）编制的加工商产量预测，甘蔗糖产量减少20,000吨（主要是夏威夷州），甜菜糖产量减少6,000吨。糖的使用没有变化。畜禽，乳制品和奶制品：注意：由于在美国和加拿大发现了疯牛病，对反刍动物和反刍动物产品的贸易禁令期限的不确定性，对2005年的预测假设当前的政策将继续实施，包括宣布的最低风险规则。随后的预测将反映所有已宣布的更改。棉花：本月美国2004/05年的预测包括失踪人数增加和期末存货减少。国内工厂的使用量增加了100,000包，至630万包，反映了迄今为止的强劲活动。基于近期的强劲销售以及较高的外国消费量和进口量，预计出口量为1300万包，比上月增加300,000包。因此，期末库存减少至730万包，约占总使用量的38％。
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