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I just got back from the Pira-Intertech Carbon Fiber Conferenee in Budapest. Since six of the seven major carbon fiber producers have announced capacity expansions, the expert consensus at the conference was that carbon fiber capacity is slated to grow around 8 percent annually - somewhat less than the 10 percent increase in demand projected through 2008. Because it will take some time to bring all the new capacity on line, supply won't catch up with demand until 2009 or 2010. Even then, the high cost of oil-derived PAN precursor and the energy it takes to carbonize it will keep prices from falling much, but prices aren't expected to spike either, which is good news for industrial end-users. (For more thorough coverage of the carbon fiber situation, see the January 2007 issue, which will include input from the Carbon Fiber panel discussion at SAMPE Tech in Dallas.) Commercial aerospace is considered a major driver of the capacity expansions: Each Boeing 787, for example, will use about 165,000 1b of carbon fiber composites; each Airbus A380 will use about 65,000 1b. It appears, at first glance, that Airbus' additional year's delay of the A380 could lend some flexibility to the carbon fiber supply. But since the A380's production problems are in the electrical system, it's also possible that composite part production could go forward as scheduled, and our supply might not be affected by the delay.
机译:我刚从布达佩斯的Pira-Intertech碳纤维会议中心回来。由于七家主要的碳纤维生产商中有六家已经宣布扩大产能,会议上的专家共识是碳纤维的产能预计将以每年8%的速度增长-略低于2008年之前预计的10%的需求增长。需要花一些时间才能使所有新产能投入生产,直到2009年或2010年供应才能赶上需求。即使如此,石油衍生的PAN前体的高成本以及碳化所需的能源仍将使价格不致下跌。很大,但是价格也不会飙升,这对工业最终用户来说是个好消息。 (有关碳纤维情况的更详尽报道,请参阅2007年1月号,其中将包括达拉斯SAMPE Tech碳纤维小组讨论的投入。)商业航空航天被认为是容量扩张的主要推动力:每架波音787,例如,将使用约165,000 1b的碳纤维复合材料;每架空客A380将使用约65,000 1b。乍一看,空中客车公司对A380飞机的延期一年似乎可以为碳纤维供应提供一些灵活性。但是由于A380的生产问题出在电气系统中,因此复合零件的生产也有可能按计划进行,并且我们的供应不会受到延误的影响。

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