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首页> 外文期刊>Conservation Biology >An Adaptive-Management Framework for Optimal Control of Hiking Near Golden Eagle Nests in Denali National Park
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An Adaptive-Management Framework for Optimal Control of Hiking Near Golden Eagle Nests in Denali National Park

机译：德纳利国家公园金鹰巢附近远足最优控制的自适应管理框架

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摘要

Unintended effects of recreational activities in protected areas are of growing concern. We used an adaptive-management framework to develop guidelines for optimally managing hiking activities to maintain desired levels of territory occupancy and reproductive success of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park (Alaska, U.S.A.). The management decision was to restrict human access (hikers) to particular nesting territories to reduce disturbance. The management objective was to minimize restrictions on hikers while maintaining reproductive performance of eagles above some specified level. We based our decision analysis on predictive models of site occupancy of eagles developed using a combination of expert opinion and data collected from 93 eagle territories over 20 years. The best predictive model showed that restricting human access to eagle territories had little effect on occupancy dynamics. However, when considering important sources of uncertainty in the models, including environmental stochasticity, imperfect detection of hares on which eagles prey, and model uncertainty, restricting access of territories to hikers improved eagle reproduction substantially. An adaptive management framework such as ours may help reduce uncertainty of the effects of hiking activities on Golden Eagles.
机译：在保护区进行的娱乐活动的意外影响日益引起人们的关注。我们使用了自适应管理框架来制定指导方针，以优化管理远足活动，以保持Denali国家公园（美国阿拉斯加）的金鹰（Aquila chrysaetos）所需的领土占用水平和繁殖成功。管理决定是将人类进入（远足者）限制在特定的嵌套区域，以减少干扰。管理的目标是在保持鹰体繁殖性能高于特定水平的同时，尽量减少对徒步旅行者的限制。我们的决策分析基于专家意见和20年来从93个鹰类领土收集的数据开发的鹰类站点占用预测模型。最好的预测模型表明，限制人类进入鹰区对居住动态没有影响。但是，当考虑模型中的重要不确定性来源时，包括环境随机性，不完善的鹰猎物捕食野兔以及模型不确定性，将区域限制给远足者使用将大大改善鹰的繁殖。我们这样的适应性管理框架可能有助于减少远足活动对金鹰队影响的不确定性。

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