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首页> 外文期刊>Geophysical Research Letters >Predicting climate change impacts on water resources in the tropical Andes: Effects of GCM uncertainty
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Predicting climate change impacts on water resources in the tropical Andes: Effects of GCM uncertainty

机译：预测气候变化对热带安第斯山脉水资源的影响：GCM不确定性的影响

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摘要

There is a strong demand from policy makers for predictions about the potential impacts of climate change on water resources. Integrated environmental models, combining climatic and hydrologic models, are often used for this purpose. This paper examines the impact of uncertainties related to GCMs in hydrological impact studies in the tropical Andes. A conceptual hydrological model is calibrated on data from four mesoscale, mountainous catchments in south Ecuador. The model inputs are then perturbed with anomalies projected by 20 GCMs available from the IPCC Data Distribution Centre. The results show that on average, the average monthly discharge is not expected to change dramatically. However, the simulated discharges driven by different global climate model forcing data can diverge widely, with prediction ranges often surpassing current discharge.
机译：决策者强烈要求对气候变化对水资源的潜在影响进行预测。为此，通常使用结合了气候和水文模型的综合环境模型。本文研究了与GCM有关的不确定性对热带安第斯山脉水文影响研究的影响。根据厄瓜多尔南部四个中尺度山区流域的数据对概念水文模型进行了校准。然后，模型输入会受到IPCC数据分发中心提供的20个GCM预测的异常的干扰。结果表明，平均而言，预计平均每月排放量不会发生显着变化。但是，由不同的全球气候模型强迫数据驱动的模拟排放量可能相差很大，其预测范围通常会超过当前排放量。

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