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Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification

机译:缓解政策对海洋酸化的影响

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摘要

This study quantifies the relative impact on future ocean acidification of different aspects of global climate change mitigation policies, such as the year that global emissions peak, how fast they reduce after their peak, and the long term minimum emissions that are possible. Relative to a scenario where emissions peak in 2016 and then decrease by 1% per year, further emissions reductions to 2, 3 and 4% per year lead to the same impact minimum pH (by 2100) if emissions peak 10, 15 and 17 years later respectively. Over the same time scale, non-mitigation scenarios lead to a decrease of global mean surface pH of 7.67 to 7.81. Strong and urgent mitigation, emissions peaking in 2016 and reducing by 5% per year, are shown to limit this minimum to 8.02. Minimum pH over longer timescales, the next 500 years, is largely determined by the minimum emission level that is attainable, owing to its relation with cumulative emissions.
机译:这项研究量化了全球减缓气候变化政策各方面对未来海洋酸化的相对影响,例如全球排放量达到峰值的年份,达到峰值后的减少速度以及可能的长期最低排放量。相对于2016年排放达到峰值然后每年减少1%的情况,如果排放达到10、15和17年峰值,则进一步减少到每年2%,3%和4%会产生相同的最低pH值(到2100年)以后再说。在相同的时间范围内,非缓解方案导致全局平均表面pH值从7.67降至7.81。强有力和紧急的缓解措施表明排放量在2016年达到峰值,并且每年减少5%,已将最低排放量限制为8.02。未来500年内,较长时间范围内的最低pH值很大程度上取决于可达到的最低排放水平,因为它与累积排放量有关。

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